Comments on: ED vs. COGNITIVE BIASES, PART 2: SURVIVOR'S BIAS http://www.ginandtacos.com/2008/02/28/ed-vs-cognitive-biases-part-2-survivors-bias/ OPIATE OF THE ASSES Sat, 11 Feb 2012 07:06:57 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris http://www.ginandtacos.com/2008/02/28/ed-vs-cognitive-biases-part-2-survivors-bias/comment-page-1/#comment-7616 Chris Fri, 29 Feb 2008 02:49:00 +0000 http://www.ginandtacos.com/?p=830#comment-7616 Isn't this kind of like the gambler's fallacy? I definitely agree with the fact that 99.9999% of people are not going to be millionaires and should just accept it. Somebody does win the lottery, but it isn't going to be you. I wish more people realized this and understood that they are better off with having the necessities of life taken care of, like health care, housing, food, etc. Ed, you should come up with an anti-Horatio Alger character and write a book about it. If you haven't read Nathaniel West's book A Cool Million, you should. A kid goes out and tried to achieve the American dream, and West basically abuses and deforms him throughout the book before killing him. I believe he loses an eye and his teeth, looses his leg in a bear trap, and is scalped by an Indian. Isn't this kind of like the gambler's fallacy? I definitely agree with the fact that 99.9999% of people are not going to be millionaires and should just accept it. Somebody does win the lottery, but it isn't going to be you. I wish more people realized this and understood that they are better off with having the necessities of life taken care of, like health care, housing, food, etc.

Ed, you should come up with an anti-Horatio Alger character and write a book about it. If you haven't read Nathaniel West's book A Cool Million, you should. A kid goes out and tried to achieve the American dream, and West basically abuses and deforms him throughout the book before killing him. I believe he loses an eye and his teeth, looses his leg in a bear trap, and is scalped by an Indian.

]]> By: JDryden http://www.ginandtacos.com/2008/02/28/ed-vs-cognitive-biases-part-2-survivors-bias/comment-page-1/#comment-7608 JDryden Thu, 28 Feb 2008 17:00:00 +0000 http://www.ginandtacos.com/?p=830#comment-7608 You mention Hollywood in your illustration, which points to a great example of this phenomenon--the "Whatever 'Worked' To Make This Picture A Hit Will Work If We Make The Exact Same Picture." The assumption being that producers can identify exactly *what* it was that 'worked.' Which, the complexities of a creative process involving the collaboration of hundreds if not thousands of people being what it is, they can't. At all. And yet we keep getting godawful "Keanu Reeves-saves-the-universe" movies because they all think *he's* the reason that THE MATRIX was a hit. Nobody will admit that movies are wildly improbable ventures, almost all of which are destined to recoup their costs but only just. Because (and this relates to your earlier post), all we ever focus on are the hits. You mention Hollywood in your illustration, which points to a great example of this phenomenon–the "Whatever 'Worked' To Make This Picture A Hit Will Work If We Make The Exact Same Picture." The assumption being that producers can identify exactly *what* it was that 'worked.' Which, the complexities of a creative process involving the collaboration of hundreds if not thousands of people being what it is, they can't. At all. And yet we keep getting godawful "Keanu Reeves-saves-the-universe" movies because they all think *he's* the reason that THE MATRIX was a hit. Nobody will admit that movies are wildly improbable ventures, almost all of which are destined to recoup their costs but only just. Because (and this relates to your earlier post), all we ever focus on are the hits.

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