ACCEPTABLE CASUALTIES

Posted in Rants on September 3rd, 2017 by Ed

If there's anything better at cranking up anxiety than watching two lunatics with no capacity for empathy and no concern for human life playing a game of chicken with nuclear weapons, I don't know what it is.

Look, it doesn't take a specialist in international relations, military strategy, geography, or the Korean peninsula to figure out that North Korea has this situation by the proverbial balls despite being a despotic, backward, half-starved shitbox of a country. The problem is simple and everyone with 2% of a brain can see it: 25 million people live in Seoul and Seoul is so close to the DMZ that there is literally no scenario in which North Korea can't level it in the first hour of any conflict.

Say North Korea launches a missile, the US responds with an overwhelming "Reduce NK to rubble" all-out attack. So much for North Korea! Except that it will take Seoul with it. Even in the short time that it would take a determined US to turn the country into a smoking crater, they would do the same to Seoul.

Estimates that within 1 hour NK could hit Seoul with nearly half a million artillery shells may be too liberal. But even half or a quarter of that leaves a death toll likely in the millions. It's a densely populated, vertically oriented city. And it's so close to its fraternal enemy that no advanced technology would be necessary to destroy it. No fancy missiles, air strikes, long invasion columns, or sci-fi space weapons are needed. Just cheap Russian and Chinese knock-off artillery pieces of WWII vintage. And that's why from the South Korean or American perspective, there simply is no winning move that involves military action against NK. The second real fighting starts, Seoul is gone.

Trump is a dumb person who does not understand any of this. Kim is a lunatic who doesn't especially care about sending people to their deaths by the millions. Trump probably doesn't either, provided those sent to their deaths are not American. When the White House responds to North Korean saber-rattling in kind I get the really sinking feeling that Trump's only takeaway from starting a war that gets a quarter of South Koreans killed would be "Look how tough I was with North Korea." The liberal cucks just didn't have the stones to start a war that would kill that many people.

Whoever starts that war had better have a good, thorough understanding of the consequences it is going to entail. Given that the president lacks the attention span to understand the consequences of anything except inasmuch as it affects his popularity, the confrontation makes me a lot more nervous today than the feeble attempts of North Korea to flex its muscles in the past.