November 09, 2006
MACACANS 1, REPUBLICANS 0
Allen's giving up. First smart thing he's ever done, I think.
It's readily apparent that he's not going to make up enough votes in a recount - Webb picked up a few hundred in the initial counts. So basically we're looking at a potential recount process that will take 8 weeks, drive everyone nuts, and STILL result in an Allen loss. Talk about bad publicity for the GOP.
Besides, Allen is such a black mark on his party at this point that the last thing they want is a month or two of Georgie being the lead story on the news every night. He's embarassed himself and his colleagues in just about every way imaginable, and a protracted recount would be an exercise in the media reviewing every asinine thing he's said and done. Not smart.
See you later, dickhead.
November 08, 2006
IT'S SO HAAAAAAAAARD TO SAY GOODBYE
Wait. No it isn't.
Sayonara, fuckface. It's been swell. Wait. No it hasn't.
LESSON LEARNED
The Democrats learned one very important thing from W in 2000: declare victory, and do it as soon as practicable.
Tester and Webb have declared victory in MT and VA after the last remaining uncounted votes from Tuesday were tallied. Tester's 3,000 vote margin is unlikely to disappear in sparsely-populated Big Sky country. Webb's declaration of victory is a bit more tenuous. He leads by about 7,000 out of 2.3 million votes cast. That's considerably more iffy. But by declaring victory and showing a lead at this moment, he psychologically establishes himself as the "legitimate" claimant and the losing Allen as the "sore loser" challenger. Worked wonders in 2000, and it should do the same here.
Due to some complicated election rules in VA, no recounts can begin until after 11/27. Here's hoping that George Allen has enough decency to concede and not turn this into a 2-month fiasco.
Who the fuck are we kidding. George Allen has no decency at all. Get ready.
RUMINATIONS
1a. Did anyone else catch Shepard Smith losing his f'n mind on Fox News at about 1 AM (EST)? He looked like his head was going to explode and went on some bizzare, incomprehensible 90-second rant about how the Democrats will need to find a leader to step up and realize that the war we are in is a war for the existence of our civilization. After that it became essentially impossible to understand, as he threw disconnected batches of words at the screen while choking back tears and bile.
1b. I came to the stunning and somewhat sad realization last night that, in voting for Baron Hill in my Congressional race, it marked the first time in my life that I have voted for someone for President, Senate, or Congress who actually won. Mind you, I have voted in every election after 1994. Unfuckingbelievable.
2. Whatever happens in Montana and Virginia, I hope to God it is decided by the recounts and not by the courts. I don't think America can take another 6-week vote-counting debacle that is ultimately decided by a nonsensical ruling from a Republican judge.
3. Where did I go wrong with the Senate calls? Well, in Tennessee I did the classic bet-with-your-heart-instead-of-your-brain. I really like Harold Ford and I wanted him to win. All signs indicated otherwise, though. In New Jersey, I think I've learned something about underestimating the power of corrupt but incredibly powerful Democratic urban turnout machines. Kean was the better candidate, but the GOP's disadvantages in that state are just too huge. Lesson learned.
4. When the smoke clears, the Democrats will have about 30-32 House gains. They did better than expected thanks to a strong showing out west. WY-At Large will end up being decided in a recount and is incredibly close. That the Republicans could end up hanging on for dear life in such a seat is stunning.
5. The miracle of gerrymandering in action: of California's 53 House seats, exactly one changed party control. One. But it was a big one - noted lunatic defense industry hooker Dick Pombo was taken down. In Illinois, none of the 19 seats flipped.
6. I hate Joe Lieberman. Jesus H Tap-Dancing Christ on a Crutch, do I ever hate Joe Lieberman.
November 07, 2006
The ever changing financial market.
Perhaps everyone simply thought that Mike and I would sit on our laurels and wait for the results of today’s election. That was definitely a faulty opinion. We have actively been trading in this free market of election results hoping to maximize our final 2006 midterm election profits.
I am going to give a quick update on what we have done.
- Late last night we had made some money on our gamble that the Democrats would win the senate. So, naturally, we sold them out hard. Took our profits and strengthened our position that Democrats would take at least 20 seats in the house.
- We also noticed some severe pricing irregularities in Rhode Island. The Wall Street Journal was telling us that Chaffee (R) had the momentum in the race. He was also strongly undervalued. As a result, we sold Whitehouse (D) and took a position in favor of Chaffee, it was simply an economic no brainer.
Come on Chaffee! You're now our guy!
- Changing position on the Rhode Island race freed up some money for another decent investment. We are now in favor of the Democrats taking the house while the Republicans retain the senate. Mathematically it makes sense; the Democrats will almost surely take the house (even fox news agrees). However, to take the senate they would essentially have to win three coin flip elections. Statistically this is a 12.5% chance, whereas the position was valued at 41%. We also used this money to strengthen our position that the Democrats would take at least 25 seats in the house.
- We thought we had found a good value, so we purchased Democrat Ben Cardin (on Ed's advice) in Maryland.
- Earlier today market fluctuations left us with a wonderful opportunity to back out of or hedge in the House of 30 seats. We moved this back to 35 seats at no cost to us. We are at slightly more risk if the Democrats don't win at least 20 seats, but we do much better if they beat 30.
- Everything else that isn't mentioned is unchanged. Honestly how could we possibly go against Ed's gut in TN?
Capitalism at Work!
Posted by Erik at 05:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
The American (and partially the Irish) Way.
Mike and I haven't really posted anything on ginandtacos.com for quite some time. It is not that we don't have anything to say, but...no actually it is mostly because we don't have anything to say.
However, all of that changed this evening when we went to Taco Bell to enjoy several of their new menu entree the "Cheesy Gordita Crunch". For the record, the commericals where the texture of said food item is debated are valid in so much as the texture does tend to change in every example of this Gordita, and often within one sample. More to the point, this fine bit of Mexican food got us thinking about the fact that neither of us intended to vote tomorrow. Its not that we don't care, its just that we both kind of forgot to register.
We felt bad not being involved in the democratic process, so obviously we responded the only way we knew how.
By placing 100 American Dollars into the futures market for 2006 midterm election results via a somewhat shady Irish website. We are at least 85% certain that it was legal.
click the above image to see the full resolution image of Mike and Erik buying a Democratic senate
(technically selling the Republicans keeping control)
It seemed quite obvious to us. Mike is obtaining a Masters degree in Financial Engineering, Ed had already supplied us with a bunch of sure fire "winners" and I- well I decided it was exceptionally amusing and was willing to risk 50 of those American dollars.
So here is how it transpired. After we became 85% certain that this was legal, and there was a good likely hood that we could actually get the money back from the Irish, Mike created a 100 dollar account. It was a good sign when his bank accepted the transfer of money (at least we think it was a good sign). When looking at the site, there are options to buy or sell contracts on pretty much every race, and other various overriding situations (for example: the Democrats taking at least 24.5 seats in the house). If you are buying a contract it means you are purchasing your opinion that the event will happen. If you sell a contract it means you are assuming the event will not happen. The moral is that I could simultaneously buy a contract saying that Rod Blagojevich is going to win the Illinois gubernatorial race and sell contracts saying Judy Baar Topinka will win. Mike and I did not do this. That would have been stupid. I am fairly certain even Judy Baar Topinka's mother knows she is going to lose. Hence, we would make absolutely no money. We needed to find positions that were fairly volatile, and where Ed had picked the winner in his previous post.
As much as Mike and I are proud to be Americans and were taking great pride in doing our civic duty, we also wanted to make a lot of money. The only way to do this was to place sums of money "against the market". We believed we had superior information (Ed's previous post on election results). We were taking obvious cues from Ed's past performance:
Proven Past Winner
So here is what we did:
Ed tells us that the Democrats are going to win between 23 and 25 seats in the House.So we took a strong position on the Democrats winning 19.5 seats, a weak position on Democrats winning 24.5 seats. And actually sold contracts on the Democrats winning more than 29.5 seats. Essentially we are putting our money on the Democrats taking between 20-30 seats. That's going to be fun to watch.
The market is saying (in a dramatic fashion) that the Democrats are going to hang onto New Jersey. Mike and I trust Ed's opposite analysis of the race and sold contracts to people believing Bob Menendez would win - we invested in the democrats losing. The margin was better than simply investing in Tom Kean.
Ed Believes that Lincoln Chaffee's luck has run out. That was a position we could invest the hell out of. Particularly since most people in the market still thought Mr. Chaffee had a bit of luck.
Here is a really interesting one. Ed proclaimed his gut was in favor of Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee. I have seen many bottles of Robert Burnet's London Dry Gin processed by Ed's gut. Even though the market is only 15% certain this will happen, we invested in Ed's gut much like his gut invested in many Taco Bell Grande Meals throughout the years.
We invested in Jim Webb in Virginia. We really did not like the political stylings of George "I hate the negros" Allen, and this race was trading at 50-50. Sounded good to us.
Finally, just so that we felt we were doing right by the Democrats we have picked them to win the senate. I know that this is in direct contrast with Ed's opinion, and our pick of Tom Kean in New Jersey, but what the hell. It wasn't a lot of money.
If you are bored with watching traditional exit poll results tomorrow. Take a quick look at some live updating graphs of Mike and My position in the futures market. Bare in mind our position was purchased around 9pm.
Oh, and despite having never watched it and aren't even entirely certain what the format of the show is, we invested money in Joey Lawrence taking it all in Dancing with the Stars.
Here are updating graphs of our official positions: Capitalism at Work!
WHO ARE YOU TO ARGUE WITH SOUTH CAROLINA?
You're nobody, that's who. The State, which calls itself "South Carolina's Homepage," recommends ginandtacos.com. I fear looking around to see what else they recommend.
Also, hey look! Mike and Erik posted something! While its true that they've come out of the woodwork to make fun of my 2004 predictions, if that's what it takes then so be it.
November 06, 2006
THE END
So the campaign is over and within 36 hours you will have voted. Ginandtacos takes this opportunity to serve the public with a review of competitive House and Senate races one final time. We have also put our political oddsmaking balls on the line by making predictions in competitive races - predictions that, come Wednesday, will either leave us open to severe mockery or provide even more evidence of why we rule.
See previous posts on this subject for a review of non-competitive races. To economize time and effort, they will not be re-hashed here.
You don't need to be Jane Fonda to realize that the GOP has already resigned itself to losing the House. I've not met anyone - even the staunchest Republicans among my friends - who would bet a nickel on their party retaining the lower chamber. The question becomes one of magnitude.
Now, as ginandtacos.com is a free public service, I never did find the time to do a run-down of the 40-50 competitive House races. So rather than bogging down in the details now, I'll focus on the House as a whole.
Believe it or not, there is a slight chance of the Republicans retaining control. I emphasize that it is very slight. Basically, I see 45 races that are legitimately competitive. Out of that group, the Democrats' 95% confidence interval is between +40 and +10. That is, it's 95% likely that they'll gain between 10 and 40 seats in the House. Note that a gain of less than 16 would leave the GOP in control of the chamber by a slim margin.
The most likely prediction, and the one ginandtacos will run with, is a gain of +23 to +25 seats. The end result will be Democratic control by a margin of 8-10 seats - not a huge margin, but enough to send Denny Hastert to the backbench.
The barometer races are:
If the Democrats split those races, they're looking at moderate gains overall. If they win all five, then it's likely that they've won closer to 40-45 seats. Please note that the odds of that happening are minimal.
For those of you who want to cut to the chase, ginandtacos is going with a Senate breakdown of 50R, 48D, 2 I (Democratic caucus). Basically I think this is going to turn into an enormous cluster-fuck. Neither party will emerge from Tuesday with a real advantage. Even if the Democrats take a 51-49 edge, the questionable Democratic loyalties of Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) make it plausible for the GOP to re-take the chamber via party-switching. It's just going to be a mess. Sorry, we calls it like we sees it.
Connecticut - Joe Lieberman (I) appears to be inevitable here. I am not willing to write Lamont off completely because polling in 3-way races is notoriously inaccurate. But Lieberman certainly looks like he will hang on provided Schlesinger (R) doesn't steal too many moderate/conservative votes. Lamont (D) just ran out of gas, like so many out-of-nowhere anti-war candidates have done historically. Joe L says he will remain with the Democrats, but nothing else the man has ever said has been believable. I see him being courted heavily by the GOP and either switching parties or refusing to seat with the Democrats. Little piss-ants like Lieberman just love the attention and power that being the deciding vote provides.
Washington - Maria Cantwell (D) was beatable on paper, but not in 2006. Mike McGavick spent millions and still hasn't sniffed her coattails yet.
Virginia - George "I hate the negroes" Allen (R) has really just fallen apart. If he hangs on, it will be by a thread. This might be the hardest race to call. By all rights Allen has no business winning this race given how terribly he's campaigned, but here's a guy who was a 2008 Presidential contender just 6 months ago. It's almost impossible to picture a fall from grace so severe that now he might not win his Senate seat. Jim Webb (D) has campaigned as strongly and as well as any Democrat could in VA. I'm just not convinced that it's enough. I go with Webb, but this is basically a coin flip. It's amazing that it's come to this. Allen's campaign will go down as one of the worst in American history. He literally did everything wrong.
Montana - Conrad Burns (R) has the late momentum. The GOP is spending boatloads to turn out the anti-gun control, socially conservative rural base. Unfortunately I think it's too little, too late. Burns is just a classic case of a politician going Washington and losing touch with his state. Ask Tom Daschle if that's a bad reputation to have. Jon Tester (D) has just out-campaigned Burns from start to finish. You'll hear from him in the future.
Ohio - Mike DeWine (R) has essentially been written off. Sherrod Brown (D) ran a mistake-free campaign and has basically left DeWine and the rest of the Ohio GOP with enough rope to hang itself. It worked.
Pennsylvania - Rick Santorum (R) has never really been in this race. He won't get blown out like the polls have been indicating, but he's not winning this one.
Missouri - Jim Talent (R) v. Claire McCaskill (D) is probably the second-hardest race to call. They're just such a bland, unmemorable pair of candidates that it's hard to say voters have strong feelings one way or another. Two things lead me to conclude that McCaskill will win. First, the national climate is negative for the GOP and Missouri is famous for being a bellwether state. Second, Libertarian Frank Gilmore will get a couple percent of the conservative vote. Talent's virtual anonymity is his downfall.
Rhode Island - Lincoln Chaffee's (R) luck runs out. Rhode Island is the most Democratic state in the union based on 2004, and that will finally be enough to overcome the fact that most of its residents genuinely like Chaffee. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) did a good job of keeping the focus on Bush and Iraq.
Tennessee - The numbers say Corker will pull this one out - he's had momentum in recent polls. But my gut says Ford has this one by a hair. His organization in Memphis and the western half of the state should turn out voters who don't normally show up in off-year elections.
New Jersey - Here's another ball-buster. Bob Menendez (D) benefits from incumbent-party status and living in a very liberal state. The Democratic party also has a fearsome urban machine in place in the major cities. But Tom Kean (R) is just more likeable and a better politician. Period. He's just more personable and more professional than Menendez. Having a famous politican name doesn't hurt - Tom Kean Sr. is still revered in New Jersey. The Democrats think they have this one, but to a man I bet they're sweating like whores in church over it.
Minnesota - This one really veered away from "competitive" and turned into a non-entity. Mark Kennedy is too far out there to win a liberal state in a liberal year.
Maryland - Here's another tough one. It's very similar to NJ. Maryland is a liberal state and this is an open Democratic seat. Ben Cardin (D) should be cake-walking. But Mike Steele (R) has just run a much better campaign. He's more likeable and he's appealed to suburban voters very well. Cardin is a stiff who hasn't excited anyone and isn't even garnering much enthusiasm in his Democratic base. This should be a 65%-to-35% race, but it's basically going to be 51%-49%. Steele has been teriffic, but this state is just too liberal and the national climate is too unfavorable for the GOP. Steele is someone you will hear from in the future.
That's +5 for the Democrats (counting Lieberman) and a 50-50 Senate. Even if Menendez pulls out NJ to leave us with 51D, 49R the situation will still be a mess, and the political pressure on fence-riders will be even greater. When the balance of power in our great nation is left in the hands of shitheads like Joe Lieberman, we can't expect much beyond gridlock, inefficiency, and mass confusion to ensue. May God have mercy on our souls.
