Month: November 2004

TWO AMERICAS INDEED

Posted on | by Ed | 26 Comments on TWO AMERICAS INDEED

So let's talk about secession.

See, there's this "two Americas" problem that is much more real and substantive than the metaphor used by the Edwards campaign.

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The social attitudes in this country, coupled with the geographic distribution of them, have coalesced into a position from which the Democratic party basically can't win an election. And there's nothing they can do about it. They can't get any rural votes, period. Moving to the left will only make things worse, and moving further to the middle will render any ballot choice we have irrelevant.

The electoral map is frightening. You have the northeast, midwest, and west coast – the nation's centers of population, business, education, media, technology, arts, etc etc – voting one way yet utterly unable to exert any influence on the Presidential races or obtain majorities in Congress.

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The rest of the country, voting on its regressive moral and social agenda, has a fairly insurmountable-looking electoral and distributional advantage in Federal races.

So while I'm half-kidding in mentioning something like secession, you really have to wonder how much longer the northeast, Pacific coast, and industrialized upper midwest are going to stand for Farmer Bob and the hee-haw crowd selecting the President and Congress for them year in and year out.

This looks strangely familiar

Welcome Senators!

Posted on | by Mike | 5 Comments on Welcome Senators!

I need to put the Presidency aside for a minute (it's way too awful to think about). Another thing to get worried about is the Senate results. Alan Keyes' staunt-pro-life, anti-gay, anti-income-tax, pro-war-hawk platform collapsed in Illinois, and I'm proud to have casted a vote against it (and for Obama). But it turns out that many white men in red states won by running essentially on the same platform.

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NBC interviewed John McCain last night. They congratulated him on his win, and Tim Russert (my favorite, god bless him) jumped at the opportunity to ask "there are many very culturally conservative Republicans entering the Senate, how will that effect more moderates like yourself?
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" McCain dodged it by pointing out moderate Arlen Specter was re-elected, a move that does nothing to address the new major problem of the Republican party.

That problem, which was hinted at during the Republican Convention, is that the party is going to be split between big-name moderates like McCain, Schwarzenegger and Giuliani, who are pro-choice, pro-stem cells, pro-balanced budget and centrists, and bible-thumpers with the most regressive set of social and cultural views imaginable on the other. And the second half of their big tent took a huge win last night. If 1994 was the year that the House ran off to the Right, 2004 may be the year the Senate did. Let's look at some of the winners in the Senate for 2005:

  • Jim Bunning, KY – From USA Today: "Bunning once compared [democratic opponent] Mongiardo's appearance to one of Saddam Hussein's sons."
  • Tom Coburn, OK – from him: "the term `safe sex' is a myth." He has suggested that the CDC was engaged in a criminal conspiracy to hide that fact (side note: Bush had him chair the advisory body on federal AIDS policy). To the AP, his own words: "I favor the death penalty for abortionists and other people who take life.
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    • TELL US ABOUT YOUR VOTING EXPERIENCE

    Posted on | by Ed | 12 Comments on TELL US ABOUT YOUR VOTING EXPERIENCE

    Did it go smoothly? Where did you vote? How long did you wait? Paper ballots? Share a little bit about what, if any, melodrama played out in your life today.

    I voted on the south side of Bloomington, at the fire station and maintenance vehicle garage. The setup was very confusing. Certain precincts had to line up in different places which were not labelled. For example, Precinct 22 voted by lining up on one side of a hallway in the main garage and Precinct 12 lined up opposite them. So one hallway was really two mutually exclusive lines. The compound also has 3 or 4 different buildings on it, and again the different precincts in each were not (or poorly) labelled. Election officials helped people figure out where to go but they were all about 90 years old and quite overwhelmed by the turnout.

    Regardless, people waited patiently. I waited almost 2 hours. Total time at the poll was about 2.5 hours. "Registration challengers" were present but looked scared shitless to actually do anything. One challenge was raised against a voter who did not have proof of residency and tried to vote provisionally, but the crowd (500+ strong) got very angry and was shouting "Let him vote!" and "Leave him alone!" The poll watcher who raised the challenge looked like he was going to wet his pants.

    We voted electronically, an experience I did not like in the least. Overall, though, it was a labor-intensive yet seemingly smooth process.

    HOW FAIR IS THIS ELECTION? IT'S NICARAGUA FAIR.

    Posted on | by Ed | 2 Comments on HOW FAIR IS THIS ELECTION? IT'S NICARAGUA FAIR.

    I hope that, like me, you are all proud that our nation has joined the ranks of those whose elections must be supervised by the world community.

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    The days of sending Jimmy Carter to Burkina Faso to monitor their election have been replaced by sending Jimmy Carter to Miami.

    Several international groups are observing in the swing states, including Fair Election International and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. But the following quote has to be my favorite.
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    "So far, we have seen nothing unusual," said Roberto Courtney, executive director of Etica y Transparencia, a government watchdog group in Nicaragua. "Generally, everything has gone very well.

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    "

    There you go. You know it's fair if it meets the exacting standards of the Nicaraguans.

    GINANDTACOS PUTS UP, SHUTS UP.

    Posted on | by Ed | 4 Comments on GINANDTACOS PUTS UP, SHUTS UP.

    There's nothing more to say at this point other than to reiterate what I've been saying for 6 months: turnout is going to be massive and the election will not be close.

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    Kerry 311, Bush 227.

    Here are the latest Gallup polls, which are methodologically biased towards Republicans (the agency adds 5-8% to the Republican totals based on the anachronistic assumption that Republicans turn out in higher numbers, which has not been true since 1988):

    Minnesota 10/31/04: Kerry 52, Bush 44
    Ohio 10/30/04: Kerry 49, Bush 45
    Florida 10/30/04: Kerry 50, Bush 46

    And one by one, all the morons on the news will sit there with a tense, We'll-Get-To-The-Bottom-of-This look on their faces wondering aloud how they could have gotten it so wrong. Maybe after a few months of ruminating they will start to realize the fallacy of their polling methodologies.

    Or maybe they will just blame Bill Clinton.

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