Day: January 4, 2008

Q & A

Posted on | by Ed | 3 Comments on Q & A

Lots of bitchin' questions in the comments. Let me take a crack at them.

1. Hillary is not out of the race, but people are just drawn to Obama.
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My bet is that she finishes second in NH and then will get hammered out of the race by losing NV and SC before the end of the month. She'll probably finish 3rd in both of those, in my estimation. If she ends January 0-for-4, kiss her ass goodbye.

2. I don't have a favorite, although the person I'd bet money on to win the whole show at this point is Obama.

3. Establishment Republicans hate Huckabee because he is a backward Southern Baptist Preacher character out of a Coen Brothers movie.
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Frankly, if Huckabee wins the GOP nomination (which I still doubt) it doesn't matter who the Democrats nominate. All that guy is missing to complete the Yokel persona is a jug band and the cast of Hee-Haw. He looks like a fucking used car salesman – and his lack of foreign policy knowledge is just humiliating.

4. The Reagan Republican coalition is splintering in the sense that no single candidate can bring all parts of it together, so they've each picked a horse – religious nutjobs (Huckabee), cut-taxes-at-all-costs suburbanites (Romney), and mouth-foaming war hawks (Giuliani). Oh, and McCain (old people). Romney is the only person who could really appeal to all of them, but unfortunately the religious right is too bigoted to let him do that.

5. McCain will do very well in NH – he won it in 2000 – and then fall off the face of the Earth thereafter. His schtick plays well there but his appeal beyond that is very limited.

I decided to give up making predictions this year, but I called this one in my head about a week ago and now I feel stupid. Now watch me start making predictions again and be totally wrong. OK. New Hampshire: Obama, Clinton, Edwards. Romney, McCain, Giuliani. Huckabee won't crack the top 3, and Obama/Clinton is basically a coin flip.
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If the race is decided by more than one or two percent I'll be shocked.

LOTS OF POLITICS FRIDAY

Posted on | by Ed | 9 Comments on LOTS OF POLITICS FRIDAY

For obvious reasons, No Politics Friday will not happen today. Instead I'm substituting a series of observations about Iowa. This format seemed to work pretty well back in 2006, so without further delay…
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  • 1. Calm down. Everyone gets a jolt of adrenaline after 4 years of waiting (8 if you're a Democrat) and rushes to assign meaning to these tangible results. Iowa is very important by virtue of the attention it receives, but it is not definitive. We don't necessarily know who the nominees are right now. Neither George H. Bush nor Bill Clinton won Iowa. Now if they also lose NH they are in real trouble. The only person to win a nomination without winning at least one of the big early races was Slick Willie.
  • 2. That said, while no one has won yet there are several candidates who are clearly finished. You know who they are.
  • 3. The most underreported statistic, and the most important one, is that nearly 215,000 Democrats showed up to caucus compared to about 100,000 Republicans. What do you think that says about next November?
  • 4. Hillary Clinton is fucked. See, Republicans think that they loathe her and everyone else adores her. The simple fact is that no one likes her. She came to this with more than $90 million in the bank and she could not even buy second place cleanly. She lost to Barack Obama in a state that is 97% white. 97%! If he kicked her ass in a state with no black people and had more support among women….
  • 5. Giuliani's strategy puzzles me. I'm not sure why he thinks that punting Iowa and NH will work. He's focusing on Super Tuesday, but the whole point of these early contests is momentum. By the time ST rolls around, the stench of death will have cloaked Giuliani for almost a month.
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  • 6. Huckabee is really going to hit a wall in the non-Bible-thumper states. The question is, can he use the attention and momentum (which bring money) to bludgeon someone out of the race before that?
  • 7. I will say more about this next week, but bear in mind that there are more than 2.3 million Iowans of voting age and about 300,000 caucused. For those of you who aren't mathemagicians, that's 13%. So to the extent that this contest chooses your president….your president is chosen by 13% of Iowa. That terrifies me.
  • 8. Clinton has raised more than million, Obama million, and Romney more than million.
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    In the 1996 election – just 12 short years ago – Clinton/Gore and Dole/Kemp spent about $100 million combined over the course of the entire election. You may not be able to buy victory (ask Hillary or Mitt) but the amount of money one needs just to show up and play the game is almost incomprehensible.

    Your thoughts? I can also put my teacher hat on and take questions, as 99% of America is wondering things like "So what the fuck is a caucus?" Don't worry, most people don't understand it even after it's well and thoroughly explained.