I don't like predicting things about politics, because in most cases politics are unpredictable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or wildly overconfident.
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When I do make predictions, I'm very comfortable admitting when I missed the mark.
I knew who Sarah Palin was, but not in a million years did I consider her a credible VP pick.
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The few (very few) media outlets that predicted her selection in advance (or even identified her as a serious option) deserve credit, including Jack Kelly at RCP. I recall reading one or two other articles that nailed it, but unfortunately I can't recall them to give credit where it is clearly due.
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