Last week I said "The polls will narrow over the next two weeks as undecideds finally extract heads from asses, but there are only two ways to get around the data showing Obama in the lead." Indeed, the national polls seem to be narrowing ever so slightly, bumping McCain up to around 45%. But the state polls aren't budging. In Pennsylvania, for example, Obama's lead remains in double-digits. How is that possible?
It's pretty simple. First, right-leaning pollsters like Rasmussen and Zogby are amping up the use of "likely voter" models to exclude respondents who get in the way of the surge story. Second, a lot of "undecided" voters in uncompetitive states are coming out of the closet for McCain. I'm sure it thrills the campaign to realize that it may have rocketed from 38% to 42% in California.