It's been a while and the ginandtacos snark-to-useful-information ratio has listed dangerously toward the former, so it's time to refresh the 2010 Senate races…just as the 2008 race is finally, maybe, possibly wrapping up. Norm Coleman, the conservative equivalent of legendary Japanese WWII holdout Hiroo Onoda, is just about out of bullets and even the wingnut illuminati are abandoning ship. Are we honestly still talking about this in April? Of course we are. The man in question, after all, is the reigning Ginandtacos.com Cocksucker of the Year.tm
While the good people of Minnesota do not get to move on yet, we are free to do so. On to 2010! I won't touch every race, but here are some of the highlights/developments since the last post:
The Kansas race (Brownback retirement) went from the potential barn-burner of the year to a non-event when Kathleen Sebelius accepted a Cabinet post. I fail to see her running from the Cabinet or resigning that post 8 months after accepting it. Without her, this race…isn't one.
The Governator has ruled himself out of the CA race, and rather emphatically if I may say so. He's about as popular as dick cancer right now, so I'm not shocked. The GOP is talking about throwing Carly Fiorina out there. Fiorina-Boxer will be a one-sided beating of historic proportions.
Everyone and their brother is either lining up or making noise about challenging Senator Hookers, a.k.a. David Vitter, in Louisiana. With challengers from both parties, he's toast.
Florida (Martinez retirement) is turning into a gangbang. Jeb's out, but Charlie Crist may be in. Crist would be the favorite, but it will be an expensive, brutal race with national attention. How badly does he want it? Badly enough to have his…uh, "romantic history" dredged up again? Kenny Meek looks like the strongest Democrat, but Crist would probably take him. The rest of the GOP field sucks.
Robin Carnahan is running in Missouri (Bond retirement). If there's one thing Missourians love, it's electing Carnahans to statewide office. Roy Blunt, one of the biggest hacks in Congress, intends to run. Good luck.
It does not appear that the GOP can talk Jim Bunning's insane ass out of running again, so he may face primary challengers. Democratic challenger and Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo, who nearly took down Bunning in 2004, is the consensus challenger again. Bunning barely held on in 2004 and this time he's A) crazier, B) in the minority party, and C) absent George W. Bush's coattails.
Man, is Arlen Specter screwed. He has a 27% approval rating among Republicans in PA. He's also dying of cancer. He's also 80. Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz is likely to be the Democrat who will beat Specter or whatever rank amateur tops him in the primaries.
Dick Burr (*snicker*) still hasn't slept since Elizabeth Dole went down in November. Widely considered to be an anonymous-to-terrible incumbent in a state that has taken a serious lurch to the left recently, Burr is likely to go down to Atty. Gen. Roy Cooper or one of several Democratic House Reps.
Oh, Chris Dodd. Someone loan Chris Dodd a sword, as he badly needs to fall on one at the moment. Chris, a lot of people like you and all that, but you're toast.
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Already in serious hot water because of the Countrywide Financial scandal, and now his name is attached to the AIG bonus clusterfuck. The facts may or may not exonerate Dodd, but the damage to his name and public image is already done. Better for Dodd to walk away and let some other Democrat club the lame field of challengers (Gov. Jodi Rell, who'd probably win, is out). The alternative is a Peter Fitzgerald-Carol Mosley Braun type election in which a horrible candidate gets elected simply because a corrupt incumbent defiantly refuses to step aside. Chris, you're done. Unfortunately the candidate is often the last person to get that message. Is he a narcissist or does he care about what's best for his party?
That's all for today. I'm sure most of you are having a hard time getting excited about it 18 months out, but trust me – this cycle will have plenty of entertainment value.
4 thoughts on “SENATE 2010 UPDATE: SOMEONE LOAN DODD A SWORD”
It's interesting to contemplate the number of things that might die in the Senate in 09-10 (like EFCA and UHC and Real Carbon Pricing) that would pass in 11-12 because of the expanded margins. Usually, it's the opposite (Presidents get a lot done in the first two years of their term, lose seats in the midterm, tack towards the middle as they head for re-election).
If it comes to pass as you predict, and the Dems get +5 to +7, wouldn't that cap a remarkable 6-year turn in the control of the Senate? Has the Senate ever turned over like that?
I still think the Dems will lose seats in the House in '10, but not enough to threaten their hold on the chamber. The usual midterm givebacks, lack of Pres coattails, and the unlikeliness of repeating the "perfect storm" that led to the '08 pickups.
As things get crappier and crappier for the GOP in the Senate, are we going to see more retirements, either in '10 or '12?
Barbara Boxer kicking Carly Fiorina in the teeth would be something to see. Fiorina was a horrible surrogate for McCain, even by the low standards of McCain/Palin '08, and watching her try to run a statewide race will be a delight. All the Dems need to do is loop that comment of her defending offshoring by saying "There is no job that is America's God-given right any more" in a state with one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation.
El Caballo de Sangre says:
WTF…no mention of my own great state of Ohio? We've got the retirement of the fake-moderate Voinovich, meaning the departure of one of the last shreds of the non-militia-haven-and-Old Confederacy fig leaf that tries to conceal the GOP's true face in the Upper House.
There is exactly ONE plausible Republican – Rob Portman – who has expressed any interest. Former Rep. from an iron-clad GOP district, former Bush flunky, etc. If there is anybody out there that thinks he's got a snowball's chance against Jennifer Brunner (who will almost certainly be the Dem nominee)- well, I don't want to speculate about what they're smoking. The dude is a standard GOP-talking-points nerd, and Brunner, aside from having acquitted herself extremely well during the '08 elections in all sorts of governing AND partisan ways, will have Barack/Hillary/Bill/Strickland/etc. campaigning and fundraising for her…like Bill Paxton said, GAME OVER. This is a guaranteed D pickup.
El Caballo de Sangre says:
Sorry – forgot to mention that Brunner is OH's Secretary of State, meaning she's ALREADY WON A STATEWIDE ELECTION.
Funny, Dodd has been politically crushed by his various banking entanglements, Yet Joe Biden is barely tainted by his. Must be those shiny choppers, or Hollywood tan.
And people keep talking about the dems loving Specter here in Pa. Untrue, plus we registered over a 150K goopers for Obama last year, they mostly have not gone back to the GOP. He can't win the primary without them.
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