The photos of the "crowds" at the tank parade remind me of when Bill Hicks would come on stage in an almost-empty club, scan the room slowly, and announce "I've had more people in bed than this" ...
When the president sends a cabinet member on TV to announce "We are using the military to liberate an American city from its elected leaders," where do you go from there. What is left to say. The idea of that being anything short of a near-universal "Wait, what the fuck is going on" moment proves how far we've backslid.
This is from 2022 but it was absolutely right. The practiced buffoonery of Trump 1, all the "just kiddings" and "seriously but not literallys" absolutely succeeded in desensitizing people who are hardly paying any attention to the harder stuff they always intended to do next. ...
The basic fallacy in chasing votes by being "tough on immigration" is that the modal American's position on the issue is "Deport the Bad ones and keep the Good ones," and they alone know who is which, and that simply does not translate into workable policy. So this kind of gestapo stuff horrifies some of the same people who cheered when Trump promised to do it. There are true sociopaths who love this, but "No, I meant only the BAD immigrants! Not my coworker/friend/neighbor!" is as likely a reaction as enthusiasm. You cannot do immigration policy that satisfies these people because what they want is nonsensical.
So by the time center-left parties fully commit to chasing the far right by "getting tough" on immigration, the backlash has already begun to build and they walk right into it. "I thought you people wanted this!" No, they want something impossible and convinced themselves they'd could have it - the "eat whatever you want AND lose weight!" of immigration policies.
It is hard to grasp but large masses of Americans are both racist/xenophobic AND not racist/xenophobic enough to applaud what Trump is doing. It's goldilocks shit, they want a level of racism/xenophobia calibrated exactly to their personal preferences, and you just can't make that policy. Don't try. ...
AP: Trump extends olive branch, invites Musk to White House cellar to taste some brand new amontillado ...
Matt says:
So Ed, I figure that beneath your facade of cynicism lurks the heart of an idealist (I've got one too) and I have to wonder, since I'm not sure how to feel – is all of this stuff, these low approval ratings, the in-party distancing from Bush, the "rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic" … is this a sign that the pendulum is about to swing back? Are we going to come out of this dark patch okay?
Or am I being naive?
Ed says:
Is it possible? Yes. Is it likely? I have my doubts.
30+ seats in the House is a phenomenal number of seats to pick up in a single election. It's not historically unprecedented, but it tends to happen once every few decades rather than every few elections.
In the Senate, aside from Santorum I can't see any Republican incumbent who has "toast" written all over him.
The four seats I see being in serious trouble are Santorum, Frist's old seat in TN (may turn over on the strength of Harold Ford) and Conrad Burns (MT). But the Democrats also face the potential of losing ground in Washington (Cantwell is a weak incumbent in a 50/50 state – look at their last Gov race), Michigan (Stabenow will face another $25 million challenger), Jim Talent in MO (a thoroughly corrupt, distasteful little troll) and WV (Byrd is 89).
So taking the Senate will require some good fortune. The Democrats would need to win every vulnerable GOP seat, pick up another seat in an upset, and hold their own vulnerables.
The House is unpredictable in my opinion. There are too many races to be able to identify individual weaknesses. Just remember that 94% of House incumbents who run for re-election are re-elected.
tenn. says:
fuck imigrants i ant got no beef with em just that what the hell we ant got the money or the room they just usally illealgal any way.My sister works at a bank and says they come over here and wire the money back to were they came,and marry a fat chick so they can become a leagal citizin so what the fuck are u thinkin? she didnt say that about the chick i did. I think obama right no better then bush,the oil spill proves it took him a fuckin almost 2 months or more to 'PLUG THAT DAMN HOlE' lmfao 'fuck imigrants
tenn. says:
he cant change the right to bear arms.dumb fucker he cant change nothin none of them