RHETORIC

I have learned, being thrice drafted into service as Uncle Ed, that children are not simply little adults.
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Children are children, and one cannot speak to a 3 year-old as though he or she is an adult. The best results come from communicating things simply and clearly while giving children ample opportunity to respond (without putting words in their mouth). With smaller vocabularies and little ability to detect sarcasm or process complex ideas, small children are inevitably spoken to differently than we would speak to one another as adults.

The fact that politicians have adopted this technique in communicating with voters presents an interesting chicken/egg question. Are Americans too stupid to understand someone speaking to them like a grown-up or is the dumbing-down of political rhetoric contributing to our plummeting national IQ?

Consider the stark contrast in these two clips: Eisenhower's farewell address (best remembered for his admonitions about a "military-industrial complex" which fortunately failed to materialize) and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine's Democratic response to the 2006 State of the Union Address. Aside from providing ample evidence for why Kaine was a poor VP candidate, the latter clip is striking in its juvenile tone.

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I'm not picking on Kaine, for he is by no means exceptional. The President whose speech he followed in 2006 is well-known for his "regular guy" (read: stupid) speaking style and the large majority of contemporary national political figures devolve into this repetitive, focus-grouped, infantile patter.

Eisenhower, not well-remembered for his oratorical majesty or camera-friendly demeanor, manages to sound like Laurence Olivier doing Hamlet in comparison. He speaks like a normal human being to an audience that reads a book or newspaper every once in a while. He speaks as though he is not worried about repeating the same phrase 15 times in 5 minutes because he knows the entire speech will be boiled down to a sound bite.

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He's clearly not worried about whatever portion of the viewing public would be unable to follow a basic argument or multi-syllabic words. He says what he wants to say and leaves it up to the viewer to keep up, which most of the country did.

What changed? I'm sure there were a lot of dumb people in 1960 as well, but in the intervening years politicians have gone out of their way to appeal to that demographic. At some point "working class" and "blue collar" became synonyms for "developmentally disabled." Is the new political rhetoric a strategic response to or a contributing factor in this change?

I recall many recent candidates – Gore, Obama, Dole, Cheney, Kemp – who tried speaking like big boys and, to different degrees, got smacked down. "Eggheads" or "boring brainiacs" or whatever no-fancy-book-learnin' labels would stick were readily overheard. Fifty years ago, Adlai Stevenson had to weather the Egghead label in two races agains Plain Speakin' Ike. But Eisenhower himself would wear the label in today's environment, in which speaking in sentences that do not follow basic subject-verb-object format is de facto evidence of treason, unelectability, or closet Frenchness.

I've already consumed my fill of fee-simple Obama speeches with one-word themes like "hope" and "change" and "bunny" just as I'm sick of McCain's over-coached, content-free rambles. I don't idealize the past, believing that in the 1950s truck drivers spent their off-hours reading Proust. Today's politicians, though, seem unwilling to challenge voters or try to raise the level of our discourse. Like a frustrated parent who gives up and says "Fine, eat candy for dinner if you want," our leaders have stopped trying, realizing that pandering to the low-brow mentality is easier than fixing it.

2008 SENATE RACES: INTRODUCTION

Yes, it's that time again. I tried getting this started last fall but it was just too early to get into it. But now I'm really getting into it. If the American public's baffling insistence on taking a McCain/Romney ticket seriously has you down, this should cheer you up.

This Senate election could not be less favorable for the Republicans. It is as if Howard Dean was given permission to design the rules and pick which seats would be up. Remember when the GOP talked about their "firewall" (which failed) to protect the Senate majority in 2006?
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I can't even imagine what the NRSC strategy for 2008 looks like. The most logical one might be to expect total failure and be pleasantly surprised when something slightly less terrible materializes.

Am I being objective? Yes. Consider the variables:

  • 1. Of the 35* seats in play this year, 23 are Republicans.
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    It's harder to play defense than offense when one's party is on the outs (I'll take 2006 and the popularity of Our Leader as sufficient evidence that the Republican brand is troubled).

  • 2. The twelve currently-Democratic seats include eleven absolute slam dunks. It reads like a Who's Who of the safest people in the Senate – Kerry, Biden, Reed, Rockefeller, Durbin, Levin, Baucus, and more. The only Democratic seat in play is in Louisiana, which lost a significant portion of its base in New Orleans when the city was practically destroyed.
  • 3. Three of five open seats, all due to retiring Republicans, are in states trending Democratic: Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico. It will take a minor miracle for the GOP to hold any of those.
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    CO could be favorable GOP ground, but they are so desperate for quality candidates that they tried to talk John fuckin' Elway into running before settling on Bob Schaffer, a guy who lost his own party's primary for a Senate seat in 2004. Good luck with that.

  • 4. One of the incumbent Republicans defending his seat is under a seven-count felony indictment and will avoid Federal prison only due to his advanced age. The RNC has to be beside itself over Stevens' refusal to withdraw.
  • 5. Mitch McConnell, who is supposed to be masterminding a national strategy to raise funds and put other Republicans in office, is fighting for his life against a nobody and can't crack 50% in in-state approval polls.

    No, it isn't a pretty year to be a Republican running for the Senate. Maybe this is why Ron Paul and his lunatic army want to repeal the 17th Amendment. Between the 5 GOP retirements and the unfavorable geography of the incumbent Democrats up for re-election, the absolute best-case scenario is still grim.
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    I mean if everything goes the Republicans' way – Iraq turns into a garden paradise in the next 6 weeks, the economy executes a miracle recovery, Obama beheads Michael Phelps during his convention speech – they will only lose 3 or 4 seats. A more likely scenario is a loss of 5 or 6, with a worst-case scenario of 9 to 11.

    Good luck with your nominations, President McCain.

    *35 seats are open instead of the usual 33 because of two seats which became open in the middle of a term. John Barrasso (R-WY) is running to remain in the seat vacated by the death of Craig Thomas while Roger Wicker (R-MS) was appointed upon Trent Lott's resignation.

  • ABBA AND THE NEW 9-11

    Joe Biden once said, In the finest political zinger this side of Lloyd Bentsen (coincidentally also a Democratic VP nominee), that there are three components to every sentence Rudy Giuliani delivers: a noun, a verb, and 9-11. John McCain never caught the highly-infectious 9-11 Tourette's Syndrome, but I think it has been replaced with something even more pathetic: POW Tourette's.

    I think that by the end of this campaign we will be seeing exchanges like this:

    Waiter: Would you prefer the dressing on the side, Senator?

    McCain: Well, I don't know. I was a POW after the plane I was flying got shot down during the Vietnam War, which I served in. So the five years I was a POW mean that I missed a lot of the big trends in salad dressings – the Vietcong didn't give us dressing, and I know that because I flew a plane that got shot down and I was a POW.

    Lieberman: He'll have ranch.

    Hyperbole? You decide. After all, he responded to a question about his favorite band with his POW tale.

    “If there is anything I am lacking in, I’ve got to tell you, it is taste in music and art and other great things in life,” McCain joked.

    “I’ve got to say that a lot of my taste in music stopped about the time I impacted a surface-to-air missile with my own airplane and never caught up again.

    Read that several times and explain to me how "I like ABBA because they're bitchin'" is not an acceptable, complete answer. Of what possible relevance are those five years he spent in Vietnam, now nearly four decades ago? Did he not have a favorite band before that?

    Has he been denied the opportunity to listen to music since 1974? I think a few albums have come out since then. Let me check.

    Yep. At least four.

    ABBA (or Waylon Jennings or old Prussian marching music or whatever McCain actually listens to when he isn't trying to court suburban female voters) is a perfectly acceptable answer for a 71 year old man who was an adult in 1976. It is an acceptable whether he was a POW or a free man. In a coma or wide awake. It just isn't relevant. But I'm going to assume that we're in for quite a bit more of this in the next 8-10 weeks.

    HI. I'M IN DELAWARE.

    While I'm on record downplaying the electoral significance of the VP, what the hell is Obama thinking with Joe Biden? I understand that the campaign is hoping to benefit from Biden's foreign policy clout.

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    But what percentage of voters can actually make that connection?

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    I think a response like this is more likely:

  • 2% of Americans who regularly watch the Sunday Morning Shows and read the non-sports section of the New York Times: "Ah, that's smart. Biden adds much needed aggressiveness and foreign policy expertise to a young campaign.
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  • Remaining 98% of Americans: "Who the fuck is Joe Biden?"

    Name recognition and popularity should not be the overriding concern, but Biden's low profile makes it dubious that the strategic advantage he is expected to bring will materialize. It beats Evan Bayh, though. Remember what happened the last time that party used the VP slot as a way to appease "moderates?"

  • POLLS ARE STILL STUPID

    The media's collective insistence on running an Obama-McCain horse race poll every 45 minutes is enough to make me want to adopt a homeless dog and punch it.

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    Or go whaling. One of the two, just out of spite.

    I struggle to think of things that matter less than mid-summer general election polling. Voters fall into two categories at this point in the campaign season: either they have made up their minds (which a lot of us, frankly, did in 2001) or they have almost zero political information on account of paying no attention whatsoever to the race. The media's mythical fence-sitter, torn between two equally appealing candidates, is a rarity. The inability to express a preference speaks more clearly to ignorance than ideological ambiguity/ambivalence.

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    Let's take a Pew Research poll, conducted from July 31-August 10. It polled 2,414 adult likely voters nationwide and collapsed the leaners (MoE 2.5%):

    McCain 43%
    Obama 46%
    Unsure/other 11%

    Obama's ahead, but McCain's closing in! Right? Aside from the fact that the margin of error overlaps (McCain: 40.5% – 45.5%, Obama: 43.5% – 48.5%) how can anyone put the slightest bit of stock in a poll – of a two-way race – with 11% undecided? Enjoy the many levels on which a single poll can negate itself.

    "I don't know" or "undecided" in a high-profile race with saturation media coverage means "I do not want to embarass myself by telling the survey guy that I have no fucking clue." Many such individuals will not vote ("likely voting" is another wildly inflated aspect of polling) but many will.
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    They will do one of two things. They could remain clueless and literally vote at absolute random.
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    Such voters would have no impact on the race because, as the Marquis de Condorcet discovered a few hundred years ago, true randomness cancels out. Second, they can start paying attention to the race at the last minute and make some sort of non-random decision. Some voters parcel out their tiny attention spans strategically. They ignore the race, giving "I'm clueless" answers to pollsters, until the last minute. So they have a real preference, they just don't realize it yet.

    Imagine yourself on a playground, having evenly divided your votes between kickball and freeze tag, waiting for the "slow" kids to stop picking their noses and eating glue long enough to break the tie. Yes, the 11% of individuals who, for one reason or another, can't give an answer in polls such as this one will ultimately decide the outcome in a close two-way race. How's that for depressing? The people who pay attention have essentially come to a split decision. Now we wait for the lame, the halt, and the ugly to furrow their brows and cast their votes – votes which may be entirely random. That's all these polls tell us.

    SCENARIO #2 – OBAMA WINS

    Forget everything you think you know about Obama's appeal and focus on electoral geography.

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    He may be wildly popular, but some of his visibly enthusiastic support is concentrated in a few areas (Illinois, California, etc) and amounts to little more than ensuring that he will win those states in a landslide as opposed to a mere 10-point margin. He is also very popular among certain voters in states he won't win (i.e., among black voters in Georgia or college kids in Texas). That does not mean he can't win. It means that the broader perception of his support isn't relevant in a presidential election. What matters is: in how many states can he cobble together enough supporters to constitute a plurality?
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    Hitting 70% in Illinois or losing 52-48 (instead of 60-40) in Georgia doesn't really matter.

    He can win. It won't be easy in this environment. One or more of the following will need to happen:

    1. Black turnout rates approximate white turnout. In 2000, survey research indicates that 93% of black voters voted for Al Gore (what would it be for Obama, 99?) The problem is that black turnout severely lags other racial groups. John Kerry gave a yeoman's effort to turn out urban black voters in 2004, namely in Cleveland, and to some extent he succeeded. But without being crass, let's say Obama has some advantages over Kerry in motivating black turnout.

    2. Young people vote. 18-to-24s are by far the worst at turning out. The demographic seems really excited about Obama but historically they talk a big game and fail to back it up. They could be determinative in tight states. I'd spend some serious money on registration and election day door-knocking on the Ohio State, Wright State, Akron, Oberlin, and Cleveland State campuses just to name a few.

    3. McCain's comedy of errors continues, destroying his credibility among all but Republican diehards. This doesn't seem to be working so far, but there's a lot of time left and he's getting worse by the minute. There could be, but certainly doesn't have to be, a "Dukakis in Tank" or "There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe" moment that ends it.

    4. Obama hits on an issue that speaks to the "all important" angry blue-collar white people demographic, keeping them from being enticed by McCain's promise of 186291 additional tax cuts. He has yet to do so. Come up with a better answer than "taxes" for the only question these people care about: Why am I broke?

    5. Hold every state Kerry won in 2004. This is absolutely essential, although Obama can (and probably will) drop a small one like New Hampshire. Too many competitive states are too close for Obama to surrender anything Kerry won and figure "I'll make it up elsewhere." This means holding Pennsylvania, which was the closest state in 2004 (not Ohio.

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    6. Fuck Florida. It's gone. Hillary is popular among Floridians, so maybe she can help there. But mentally tabulate it as a loss and be pleasantly surprised if it comes through. Do not base a strategy on taking Florida.

    7. Spread McCain thin. He is going to be outspent, the first time in….ever….that the Democrat will raise more money. Do not make the Kerry error of competing only in the 10 states that are in play. Spend money in places like Nebraska, Indiana, Alaska, or Georgia. Obama won't win any of those, but if he can get McCain paranoid it's worth it. This worked phenomenally well in 2006. Creating the impression that people like Scott Kleeb could win House seats in Nebraska A) panicked the GOP and B) created the image of Republicans In Trouble, i.e. "Gee, if they're losing Nebraska they must really be in the shitter." Kleeb lost, of course. Doesn't matter though. It made a point. Obama has already started doing this by claiming that Virginia is in play, which it probably isn't.

    8. Win one of Wisconsin or Iowa. Even with Ohio, Obama will need one of these to win (assuming McCain takes NH and Obama takes New Mexico, both of which are likely). They are crucial. Turning out Madison and Milwaukee can seal the deal for Obama.

    9. Prepare for losing Ohio. Don't put all of the eggs in the Ohio/Florida basket. If McCain takes OH and FL, Obama can still win with Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico (all reasonably likely), Colorado (depends on who turns out), and Montana (Democratic governor, state legislature, and Senators).

    10. Thank God for the House majority. If Obama wins all the Kerry states (minus NH) and McCain wins all the Bush states except NM, CO, IA, and WI, the election is 269-269. This is the most plausible tie scenario we've seen in ages. If McCain holds Ohio somehow, the specter of a tie is real. The election could swing on a tiny state like Montana or New Hampshire. Why do we have an even number of electoral votes again? Oh yeah, because the EC is retarded.

    This is a very hard race to gauge at this point, and it likely will remain that way until October. One gets the feeling that Obama could cross some tipping point where this becomes a laugher and he wins a Reaganesque 40 state blowout. But right now it feels more like 2004, where we're doing a lot of mental calculation of how a victory can be scraped out vote-by-vote.

    SCENARIO #1 – McCAIN WINS

    Defying all conventional logic and proving a number of very important things about the ideology of the American public, this presidential race is essentially a coin flip at the moment. Polling is of limited value and the candidates will likely gain separation as the campaign season enters full swing. But there is little doubt that an election which should be a posterizing tomahawk dunk for the Democrats is, despite the GOP's best effort to tank it, a toss up. In response to Monday's comments, today and tomorrow will be dedicated to explaining the likely scenarios in the event of each candidate's victory.

    It's important to note that the odds of either candidate hitting 300 Electoral votes is about 10% IMO. We're in for a lot of close elections until something about the geography of party support changes. So whoever wins this is basically going to sweat it out.

    McCain wins by being Not Obama, Not a Liberal, and taking advantage of the fact that the American public is, in this political era, far more conservative than it is liberal. Since the collapse of the New Deal coalition in the 1970s every Democratic victory has been a brutal, bloody, Middle Ages siege of a fight. In other words, Democrats can win by being exceptional, doing everything right, and getting some luck. Republicans can win by showing up.

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    That's what being the dominant coalition is all about.
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    It wouldn't be fair to be that vague. So here's how McCain actually wins:

    1. The droves of "disaffected" Republicans and white working- and middle-class voters who have been loudly criticizing the war and President they elected. But when the chips are down they "vote with their pocketbook" (a phrase that makes me vomit blood) and pick the guy who they think will cut their taxes again. Never mind that Obama's tax proposal also cuts taxes for everyone making less than $200,000. When I recently pointed this out to a conservative, the response was "Yeah, but Obama's lying." Hard to compete with logic like that.

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    White people in the suburbs – people who live balls-deep in debt – fall for the guy who offers Buy Now, Pay Later financing.

    2. McCain successfully sells his "maverick" image, allowing voters to vote for "change" without actually changing anything. The suburban masses realize that a 72 year old white Republican who has disagreed with George W. Bush like twice is about the kind of "change" they're ready for.

    3. Obama takes Ohio, a state in which the GOP fortunes have plummeted since half the state party got indicted in 2004, and Pennsylvania easily. Bad news for McCain, right? But Florida is becoming a Democratic lost cause – too many religious nutbars, too many panhandle hillbillies, and too many suburbanites. McCain wins Florida and New Hampshire (where he has always been popular). Assuming everything else from 2004 remains the same, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Missouri become the keys. New Mexico goes to Obama (thanks to Bill Richardson) but Missouri remains Republican, giving Obama 263 EV with Iowa (7) and Wisconsin (10) to go. McCain wins those thanks to a large rural turnout and he wins the election without having to lift a finger in Ohio or PA.

    4. Alternatively, McCain keeps it simple and just wins Ohio. In that case Obama could win WI, IA, NH and NM and still lose 274-264 (calculator here). Given the preponderance of deindustrialized, angry white people in that state, it's going to be hard for Obama (an admitted black guy) to make up the 120,000 vote margin of Kerry's defeat in 2004. I could easily see McCain winning the whole taco just by squeaking out a 5,000-vote Ohio victory in the suburbs of Cleveland and Cincinnati or in blighted shitholes like Akron and Dayton. If McCain wins Ohio, Obama has to win everything Kerry won plus Iowa and New Mexico (plausible), and one of either Virginia, Arkansas, Colorado, or Florida (all longshots).

    So that's how easy it is for McCain to win. The country might seem to be sick of Republicans and McCain might be a terrible candidate, but the magic of the Electoral College means that McCain can be really, really bad (he is) and still win without anything exceptional happening. I think Obama can hold Wisconsin (Madison, Milwaukee) and New Mexico is on balance a favorable Democratic state.
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    But the GOP has an edge in the others. If Obama loses Ohio (or PA, which is essentially the same) because the "salt of the Earth" crowd can't pass up yet another tax cut (one they will be shocked to find out does not solve their economic woes) he is really in trouble. He will need to win states where Democratic candidates have not won a majority (although Clinton got pluralities) since 1976. And that was with a white southerner running.

    BRING ON THE ROBOT MEDIA

    Just for shits and giggles, I'm going to (sort of) agree with Glenn Beck. A little.

    With the exception of a few ill-advised and feeble attempts to defend McCain, Beck's write-up of the media's "embarrassing" coverage of Obama's Middle East trip is unusually readable. He mentions some facts worth mentioning. Unfortunately I can't tell what he expects anyone to do about it.

    I think Beck is cherry-picking to note some of the ridiculous things the media report as "news" – the contents of Obama's iPod or workout routine. There was plenty of coverage about George Bush's iPod and love of mountain biking back in the day. This isn't Obama-specific, it's just the kind of vapid fluff that passes for news these days.

    His second point – the vastly larger number of reporters vying for spots on Obama's foreign trip compared to McCain's – is valid. There is no way to ignore the numbers. So we agree on the basic facts. The conclusion is subjective, though. This doesn't prove that "bias" is the problem. Maybe – just maybe – McCain is the problem. He's a phenomenally boring person running a boring campaign utterly devoid of media savvy.
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    He is essentially a walking blooper reel who shows complete disdain for the media (as do his followers). Since the media are in the business of selling newspapers and keeping viewers interested, McCain is poison. Of course they spend as little time with him as possible.

    Why is there no story about John McCain's iPod? Well, he doesn't own one. Why are there no stories about his hobbies? Well, he doesn't have any. He's an ancient, surly, out-of-touch person. What is there to cover? How does one write sympathetically about a person who is "aware of the Internet" but never used it? Reporters don't make him sound like your doddering grandfather. He does that himself. So on the fluffy "human interest" stories, McCain is bound to get the short end of the stick.

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    It's hard to do personality coverage of a man who doesn't have one aside from the occasional burst of anger.

    What about the "hard news?" Arguably McCain does not get slighted as badly in this category, but the same basic problem exists. Beck says:

    And while Obama was flying from country to country this week in a plane packed with celebrity reporters, McCain flew to an event in New Hampshire. After his Boeing 737 landed in Manchester, he stepped out onto the tarmac and glanced at the one reporter who'd bothered to show up. Yes, one.

    But why would more than one reporter show up? Does Beck expect that a throng will attend something that has zero news value and even less commercial appeal? The event was a town hall meeting at the Rochester, NH Opera House. Can you think of anything that sounds more boring or less newsworthy? His campaign's media savvy is so bad it's comical. As Obama spoke to 200,000 in Berlin, McCain spoke to six people at "Schmidt's Sausage Haus und Restaurant" in Ohio. Are those two events supposed to get equal coverage? Maybe Glenn Beck should direct his anger at whatever asshat McCain has running his media team and setting him up in these ridiculous, humiliating, bush-league "appearances.

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    If the media are slighting McCain's "message", it's probably because there isn't a single part of it that is new, exciting, or original. Name one policy he has proposed that differs from George W.
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    Bush. I dare you, name one. There is a reason that people do not show up to rallies to scream "WOOO! STATUS QUO! WOOOOO!" Campaigning for a third term of Bush's presidency is what it is. "McCain says: stay in Iraq, keep Bush's tax cuts" hardly makes an interesting headline. Who can even muster the energy to pretend like that's exciting? The media can't.

    Reporters are people. They are not robots who can divorce themselves from the demands of their industry and their own sense of what is or isn't interesting. The media would cover McCain's wild rallies or speeches to 200,000 people if McCain had wild rallies or could get 200,000 people to watch him speak. They have less interest in McCain because, as Beck points out, he doesn't sell. But they also have less interest in him because the public has less interest in him. Not necessarily politically (he's polling decently and he'll probably win in the end) but as a Story. We'd sooner watch news stories about an old guy in a nursing home, and we might be hard-pressed to tell the difference.

    FANTASY SCENARIOS

    Imagine this for a moment. Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki gives an interview with a well-respected news magazine and says:

    "Look, there is absolutely no way the government of Iraq can support a timetable for American military withdrawl. It's the wrong plan, period. We need American troops here until the job is done and we don't know when that is."

    In other words, imagine that he stated John McCain's position almost verbatim. Tell me what the reaction would look like among the American media and voters. I will save you the trouble: shit would not hit the fan, for no fan on Earth would be powerful enough to withstand the nor'easter of shit that would result. The fan would literally be buried under an Everest-sized mountain of rhetorical feces. And Obama's campaign would rapidly become an updated version of McGovern '72. McCain would do nothing but repeat this single talking point incessantly. Your email inbox would fill to bursting with forwarded emails of al-Maliki's quote and endless derision of Obama's contrarian position. We wouldn't have a campaign so much as we'd be having Obama's wake.

    Of course, Mr. al-Maliki did not say that. He said the exact opposite. In effect, he offered Obama's position as his own opinion on withdrawl:

    "That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes," al-Maliki was quoted as saying. "Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic. Artificially prolonging the tenure of U.S. troops in Iraq would cause problems."

    While one high-profile Republican strategist responded to this development succinctly ("We're fucked.") this will ultimately amount to a minor flap in the campaign. No eulogies will be sung for McCain. The man who thinks Pakistan and Iraq share a border or that Czechoslovakia is still a country or that he knows what Iraq needs more than the Iraqis do will continue to wear the Foreign Policy Expert crown. Obama will remain the guy your aunts and uncles very seriously intone about as "too inexperienced," lacking McCain's many years of experience in being white promising to cut taxes international affairs. No one will point out that McCain has repeatedly stated that when the elected government of Iraq wants us out, we'll leave.

    No one will question the GOP's mind-boggling insistence that A) Iraq is so goddamn safe we can hardly believe it but B) we can't leave. They declare victory for democracy while simultaneously trying to convince people that Iraq will become Uncle Osama's Terrorism Fiesta if we leave. We've achieved victory – stable democratic government and peace – but without 150,000 troops on the ground it would quickly become the seventh circle of hell. That's a pretty curious interpretation of having achieved stability and peace.

    FIAT IGNORAMUS

    If you can spare 90 seconds, take the Pew Center's News IQ test. Or don't and just keep reading.

    As I have stated repeatedly over the years, and as you are already fully aware, Americans are stupid. We already know this. Every conceivable way of measuring what Americans know about politics, government, and current events leads to the same abysmal conclusions. It is easy to take a survey like Pew is offering and point to alarming findings such as the fact that 84% of Americans know that Oprah likes Obama and 28% know that more than 4,000 troops have died in Iraq. Oh, that liberal media!

    This is not new. Every 12-18 months, usually on a slow news day, another media outlet or polling organization rolls out a new but essentially identical set of data; lots of adults don't know who represents them in the Senate, which party controls what, where the Pacific Ocean is on a map (seriously), and so on. Several landmark studies in political science (notably Philip Converse's "Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics," 1964) and countless best-selling books (including Rick Shenkman's new Just How Stupid Are We?) have cashed in on telling the same story. Americans, aided by absolutely vacuous news media, are stunningly ignorant.

    The data cited by these authors, both popular and academic, are doubtlessly accurate. Nonetheless the conclusions commonly drawn – we're too stupid to dress ourselves without assistance let alone wield democratic power – are controversial. Just how much, and more importantly what, does one need to know to participate in the political process? It would not be hard to support an argument that much of this has little relevance to opinion formation. Critics, in other words, assert that these tests of political/civic knowledge are essentially tests of trivia.

    Does a person need to know the Senate Majority Leader – or find Louisiana on a map, or whatever – to form a negative opinion of one presidential candidate or the other? Is knowing the number of Senators relevant to understanding the motives and justifications for the war in Iraq? Objectively, no. At the same time, it is also obvious that some facts (whether or not WMD were found in Iraq, which nations were most responsible for 9/11, how many troops have died in the war) are very relevant to drawing accurate conclusions and forming intelligent opinions.

    The reality about the relationship between basic civic knowledge and our electoral system centers around two dynamics. First, there is a threshold effect. It's not necessary to get 12-for-12 on the Pew quiz in order to be an informed voter and there's probably no effective difference between getting 9 or 12. There is a number, probably hovering around the mean, at which someone shows enough knowledge to form opinions that are not completely random. Going beyond that doesn't help a whole lot (although more is obviously better for other reasons) and dipping below it probably reveals comprehensive ignorance. Second, very high or very low scores are essentially measuring political interest; it's not possible to pay any attention to politics and be unaware of the Congressional majority. Conversely, it's not possible to know minute points (the names of Senate Committee Chairs and so on) without paying a lot of attention.

    The conclusion I usually draw, and the sense in which I mean "stupid", is that Americans are vacant.

    True stupidity would be an inability to learn this stuff, and that certainly does not exist.
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    Listen to sports talk radio for 10 minutes.
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    You will hear callers, people who probably couldn't name their Senators for a million bucks, rattle off the batting averages of the entire starting nine of the 1986 Mets. Americans, in short, are simply chock full of information about meaningless things – Survivor, shoe shopping, celebrity romance, football, cars, and so on. Those things are all fine and good (see the sidebar for a set of baseball links I read every day).

    Survivor and sports are supposed to be our brain candy, our hobbies. Instead, they are the entirety of what we know. These subjects have become to the American mind what junk food has become to the American diet: what should be an occasional indulgence in the interest of pleasure and relaxation has become the whole menu.