I LOVE SARAH PALIN

No, seriously. She is like a gift from heaven. That hateful, corrupt little troll is going to go over like gangbusters with the people who were voting for McCain anyway.

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And exactly no one else.

Best I can tell from her speech (usual caveat: read, not watched, as one takes 90 seconds and the other an hour) she was nominated because Ann Coulter was busy.

Classic right-winger-unconstrained-by-facts moment: Barack Obama wants to take all your money. Ignore reality, that both candidates propose tax plans that cut taxes on everyone making under $200,000. Conservatives have a neat way around inconvenient facts like that – Obama's lying.

Second-favorite moment: bringing up all of her kids in the first 2 minutes after days of complaining about how the media is prying into the lives of her children.

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That mean librul media! What kind of people would shine the national spotlight on teenagers for political gain?

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MOTORCYCLEOLOGY

On the topic of intellectual races to the bottom:

I think a very interesting analysis could arise from a comparison of the ways in which non-fiction cable television has changed over the past five to ten years. This struck me when, for reasons now lost to me, I stumbled upon the website of TLC. Let me now summarize the current program roster on The Learning Channel:

10 Years Younger ("Complete strangers guess our participant's age. Then our glam squad goes to work and takes a decade off the person's look in just 10 days!"), Flip That House, Say Yes To the Dress (bridal shopping), What Not to Wear, LA/Miami Ink (teaching valuable tattoo industry tips), Must Love Kids, Who Are You Wearing?, Makeover Train (was that a Wesley Snipes movie?), Rock the Reception, specials like "160-pound Tumor," shameful freakshowism like Little People Big World, and so on. If this is learning, freebasing cocaine is gourmet cooking.

But let's focus on their big-ticket shows. There's American Chopper, an incisive look at the tribulations of a facially-hirsute team of motorcycle builders. Through this show I learned that motorcycles go "vroom!" and do not come from eggs. There's Jon & Kate Plus 8, which apparently exists to make the rest of us feel better about our mastery of birth control and avoidance of fertility drugs. And don't forget the original smash hit Trading Spaces, in which people attempt to fill holes in their lives by redecorating rooms. As the "Learning" channel says, "Two room (sic), 48 hours and $1000." Ed agree. That look good.

TLC's competition has hardly fared better, filling their schedules with shows about explosions, dieting, people falling into mud and/or sewage, morons eating insects because they went into the "wild" without packing food (but with a camera crew), and people catching crabs. Now don't get me wrong. I like Mythbusters. It's fun. I'll watch some Deadliest Catch. But I also miss the kind of programming that they used to provide in spades. I want hour-long specials about the history of styrofoam. I want boring, lightly-narrated, grainy color footage of things on conveyor belts. I want detailed retellings (with bad re-enactments) of obscure historical events that did not involve muskets, swords, or warfare. I want to learn things that will only be of use on Jeopardy! or first-dates with unreasonably intelligent folklorists.

I do not want to learn any more about historical armed conflicts. You have taught us enough about WWII, Vietnam, Desert Storm, and military toys in general to last several lifetimes. I know the thickness of the armor on every conceivable type of Cold War-era tank. I know what it looks like when precision munitions hit something and then explode. I know all of Hitler's personal habits, every person he ever spoke to, and what he ate for breakfast the day he died. I do not want to know any of this. It has stuck through simple repetition, a brute-force attack by your networks. Think of your programming as the camera-guided bomb and my brain as the Iraqi bunker.

In short, please rededicate yourself to bland, informative programming about topics of minimal appeal to audiences. This was your bread-and-butter for years and I miss it. The invisible hand of the free market may have erred when it led you astray to programming with commercial appeal. This does not educate us. It may entertain us (although looking at TLC's roster again I am skeptical) but that is not your raison d'etre. Your switch to makeover- and chopper-based shows makes economic sense, but look at it this way: people who like makeovers and shopping already have 997 channels to call their own.

PALINDROMES

In the past 5 days, among media, things I have seen on the interweb, and people with whom I have spoken, Sarah Palin has been compared to Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Ronald Reagan, Martin Luther King, Hillary Clinton, Margaret Thatcher, and Lyndon Johnson. She is, in short, the most amazing, incredible human being in the history of people. Tenured researchers at the University of Awesome have finally solved their field's historically unsolvable equation. The answer is Sarah Palin.

Not that the reaction has been hyperbolic or anything.

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I'm sure these comparisons, lain upon someone her new acolytes never heard of five days ago, are well-grounded in reality. If anything they may not be going far enough.

She also reminds me of Ghandi, Abraham Lincoln, Sir Edmund Hillary, and legendary knuckleballer Phil Niekro. She runs faster than Usain Bolt. She can deadlift a 1974 Ford Ranchero. She can cure pleurisy with her touch. She appears on tortillas in El Salvador. She can make dinner with one hand while writing in Hittite cunieform with the other.

She declined to break the NFL single-game record for safeties out of respect for Fred Dryer.

She craps platinum ingots. Her penmanship has been described as unpretentious and legible.

She is not an American, she is America.

2008 SENATE RACES, PART 2 – UNCOMPETITIVE

(note: the "senate" tag at the bottom of the post can take you to other parts of this discussion)

While I discussed the odds stacked against the GOP in the first post, the good news is that many of their incumbents are safe. Unfortunately, the Democratic percentage of safe seats is far greater. Before we move on to the exciting races, let's cover the obligatory ones.

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These races are not considered competitive in any reasonable scenario. The unreasonable does happen. But these seats are safe in the absence of a major, game-changing blunder on the part of the incumbent. I'm not talking about answering some question wrong at a press conference – I mean calling someone "Macaca" or getting indicted. These candidates, some of whom have little more than token challengers, need only play decent defense to get re-elected.
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Safe Republicans (12)

  • Idaho – Open: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has a cakewalk to fill Larry Craig's deeply closeted shoes.
  • Lamar Alexander (TN): Tennessee is not a total wasteland for the Democrats, but Bob Tuke is not a quality challenger and Lamar is a local institution.
  • Mike Enzi and John Barrasso (WY): Yawn.
  • Saxby Chambliss (GA): This disgusting excuse for a human being is likely to be tested by Vietnam vet Jim Martin, but he will return to Washington nonetheless.
  • Thad Cochran (MS): To call his opposition 'token' would be hyperbolic.
  • Roger Wicker (MS): I don't want to say this is competitive, but Ronnie Musgrove (Governor, 2000-2004) is the closest thing the MS Democrats have to a legit statewide threat. Keep an eye on this one. It could move.
  • John Cornyn (TX): State Rep. Rick Noriega poses little threat to an otherwise shaky Republican.
  • Jeff Sessions (AL): The former Democrat remains safe in a state whose internal politics remain Democratic.
  • Pat Roberts (KS): War veteran/Congressman Jim Slattery is a strong challenger fighting a losing battle.
  • Jim Inhofe (OK): The dumbest man in the Senate will return for six more years of humiliating himself on the world stage.
  • Lindsey Graham (SC): Among the safest of all GOP states.

    Safe Democrats (11)

  • Mark Pryor (AR): The only candidate who literally has no challenger – in a state GWB won twice.
  • Max Baucus (MT): Opposed by an 85 year-old joke candidate.
  • Jack Reed (RI): Opposed by a casino pit boss named Bob Tingle whose website was designed by a 9 year-old.
  • Jay Rockefeller (WV): The latest generation of the political royalty in the Mountaineer state.
  • John Kerry (MA): Jerome Corsi said he would challenge Kerry but, to no one's surprised, pussied out. Pussy.
  • Dick Durbin (IL): Where's Alan Keyes when you need him?
  • Joe Biden (DE): Some GOP direct mail consultant threw her name on the ballot when no one else wanted any part of this kamikaze run.
  • Tom Harkin (IA): Wealthy businessman Chris Reed could stress Harkin, but he is unlikely to prevail.
  • Carl Levin (MI): It's cute how the GOP insists Michigan is competitive and then runs a guy named Jack Hoogendyk against Levin.
  • Tim Johnson (SD): Inexplicably safe. He is getting a bump from something like a sympathy vote after his life-threatening aneurysm. Weak challenger.
  • Frank Lautenberg (NJ): I got into trouble by giving the GOP some credit in this state in 2006, but 84 year-old Lautenberg may be pressed by Dick Zimmer. Of the safe Democratic seats, this is one that could move.
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    While the safe Republicans are very safe, the sheer awfulness of some of the GOP challengers to safe Democrats is kind of awesome. Senile? Non-existent? Make $12/hr in a casino? Want your name on the ballot to impress your friends? Step right up!

  • CRYSTAL BALLS

    I don't like predicting things about politics, because in most cases politics are unpredictable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or wildly overconfident.
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    When I do make predictions, I'm very comfortable admitting when I missed the mark.

    I knew who Sarah Palin was, but not in a million years did I consider her a credible VP pick.
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    The few (very few) media outlets that predicted her selection in advance (or even identified her as a serious option) deserve credit, including Jack Kelly at RCP. I recall reading one or two other articles that nailed it, but unfortunately I can't recall them to give credit where it is clearly due.
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    RHETORIC

    I have learned, being thrice drafted into service as Uncle Ed, that children are not simply little adults.
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    Children are children, and one cannot speak to a 3 year-old as though he or she is an adult. The best results come from communicating things simply and clearly while giving children ample opportunity to respond (without putting words in their mouth). With smaller vocabularies and little ability to detect sarcasm or process complex ideas, small children are inevitably spoken to differently than we would speak to one another as adults.

    The fact that politicians have adopted this technique in communicating with voters presents an interesting chicken/egg question. Are Americans too stupid to understand someone speaking to them like a grown-up or is the dumbing-down of political rhetoric contributing to our plummeting national IQ?

    Consider the stark contrast in these two clips: Eisenhower's farewell address (best remembered for his admonitions about a "military-industrial complex" which fortunately failed to materialize) and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine's Democratic response to the 2006 State of the Union Address. Aside from providing ample evidence for why Kaine was a poor VP candidate, the latter clip is striking in its juvenile tone.

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    I'm not picking on Kaine, for he is by no means exceptional. The President whose speech he followed in 2006 is well-known for his "regular guy" (read: stupid) speaking style and the large majority of contemporary national political figures devolve into this repetitive, focus-grouped, infantile patter.

    Eisenhower, not well-remembered for his oratorical majesty or camera-friendly demeanor, manages to sound like Laurence Olivier doing Hamlet in comparison. He speaks like a normal human being to an audience that reads a book or newspaper every once in a while. He speaks as though he is not worried about repeating the same phrase 15 times in 5 minutes because he knows the entire speech will be boiled down to a sound bite.

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    He's clearly not worried about whatever portion of the viewing public would be unable to follow a basic argument or multi-syllabic words. He says what he wants to say and leaves it up to the viewer to keep up, which most of the country did.

    What changed? I'm sure there were a lot of dumb people in 1960 as well, but in the intervening years politicians have gone out of their way to appeal to that demographic. At some point "working class" and "blue collar" became synonyms for "developmentally disabled." Is the new political rhetoric a strategic response to or a contributing factor in this change?

    I recall many recent candidates – Gore, Obama, Dole, Cheney, Kemp – who tried speaking like big boys and, to different degrees, got smacked down. "Eggheads" or "boring brainiacs" or whatever no-fancy-book-learnin' labels would stick were readily overheard. Fifty years ago, Adlai Stevenson had to weather the Egghead label in two races agains Plain Speakin' Ike. But Eisenhower himself would wear the label in today's environment, in which speaking in sentences that do not follow basic subject-verb-object format is de facto evidence of treason, unelectability, or closet Frenchness.

    I've already consumed my fill of fee-simple Obama speeches with one-word themes like "hope" and "change" and "bunny" just as I'm sick of McCain's over-coached, content-free rambles. I don't idealize the past, believing that in the 1950s truck drivers spent their off-hours reading Proust. Today's politicians, though, seem unwilling to challenge voters or try to raise the level of our discourse. Like a frustrated parent who gives up and says "Fine, eat candy for dinner if you want," our leaders have stopped trying, realizing that pandering to the low-brow mentality is easier than fixing it.

    HMMM….

    Unsubstantiated but circumstantially-damning rumor time. Being a graduate of one of those high schools where "mono" was code for "I got knocked up" I do find it extremely curious that Palin's 16 year-old daughter just happened to miss the last five months of school before Baby I'm So Pro-Life I Birthed a Tard was born. It's a time-honored tradition among the upper classes.
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    Ignore the photo "evidence" and pay attention to Sarah's claimed timeline: her water breaks in Dallas, she gives a speech afterward, gets on a commercial flight for 12 hours (not telling anyone she was in labor, and none of the flight crew noticed?
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    ), drove 90 minutes to the rural Alaska hospital that agreed to fake the birth certificate provided the finest medical care, and then went back to work 2 days later.

    Wow. She must be SuperWoman. Twelve hours in a plane after going into labor (at age 44) seems like quite a feat. Especially without showing any signs that she was in labor! Which is unsurprising since she never showed any signs of being pregnant.
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    I smell the GOP's Tom Eagleton brewing…