BLACK FRIDAY

I applaud the efforts of the National Buy Nothing Day campaign as well as the general idea that the December holidays should not be a socially-mandated orgy of frivilous spending. I'm guessing that if you read this site regularly you are unlikely to be the kind of person who spends post-Thanksgiving at the nearest mall, so I won't preach said message to said choir.

For the next thirty days the media (and specifically the CNBC crowd) will watch consumer spending like a nervous parent checking Baby's temperature. They are all aware, as are you and I, that for all the talk of mortgage-backed securities and the auto industry the foundation of the American economy is people buying disposable shit they don't really need. And extending them credit so they can keep buying shit when the money runs out. When people stop buying, things get nasty. And we are about to learn a harsh lesson in how swiftly a failure of consumer confidence can kick the legs out from beneath our economic house of cards.

It is easy to forget the fact that we are in the midst of considerable economic turmoil. We see plunging gas prices, we no longer read daily of bank failures, and we have elected new leaders who will undoubtedly fix everything in a few days, max. Given our society's drosophila-like attention span, those who have yet to be directly affected are quick to forget. A disappointing holiday season of consumer spending, which will prompt another wave of difficulties throughout the economy, will serve as an abrupt reminder.

My point is, the frightening thing about the economic turmoil of the past few months is that we have only experienced the beginning – and it already blows. Things are going to get worse before they get better. The banking industry and the financial markets trembled and we all felt it. But the aftershocks are forthcoming. How much Christmas shopping will a 55 year-old whose retirement account lost 30% of its value in the past six months do this year? How many gifts will be under the (insert co-opted pagan symbol of your choice) of the millions of people who have lost jobs – or the tens of millions more who fear that fate in the near future? How much shopping can we expect of people whose homes declined in value precipitously or went into foreclosure?

The current predicament of the Big Three will be the fate of other industries as well when the long-term effects of insecurity and decreased wealth hit home. The best thing for all of us to do, theoretically, is to spend as usual rather than to deny the economy our dollars. If you're like me, however, and enjoy anything less than 100% job security, you're much more likely to tell the kids that Christmas will be a little less spectacular this year and go into Unnecessary Spending Lockdown.

Sorry, retailers. I've got nothing for you.

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One Response to “BLACK FRIDAY”

  1. Kdzgo Says:

    What strikes me as interesting from a theoretical standpoint is that most every problem in the world could be solved if we could get a large enough group (as in more believing than not in the population affected) to take a certain action. If enough people act as usual and spend money during the holidays, the problem would correct.

    But because people are only really reliant on themselves in that kind of dynamic, and they don't believe enough people will follow through, they wont either. When everyone has that attitude, it becomes self-fulfilling. It's not that I don't understand the action or even wouldn't do it myself; it's that it's unfortunate that there isn't some way to do it. With enough people we can do anything, but if enough personal risk is involved, you can never get enough.

    That kind of thing always interested me. I hope that wasn't too cyclical or hard to understand.