This post will be updated throughout the evening as the election unfolds. Use the comments to discuss and share. All times are Central Time.

5:43 PM – 1% of the vote is in from rural Kentucky and it looks like a Romney landslide. Obama's finished.

7:00 PM – Obama has an early lead in Florida of over 100,000 and he's been holding it steady for about 45 minutes. If he wins Florida, you can go to bed.

7:56 PM – I truly appreciate the thought, but maybe don't host an election party if you have neither cable nor internet.

8:06 PM – Well the fantasy about Michigan being close was short-lived.

8:12 PM – Looks like this might actually come down to Ohio, where Obama appears to be performing quite well.
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8:23 PM – Republican House, Democratic Senate, and possibly Obama being re-elected. A $7 billion election that changes absolutely nothing. Awesome.

9:27 PM – We're just in a great big holding pattern here. If I was conspiracy minded I would suspect that the networks are doing what they can to drag this out.

9:36 PM – NH is the first of the four key swing states with a declared winner. Romney's window is starting to shrink.

9:51 PM – Romney's margin of error continues to shrink. Florida might end up being so close that we have a meaningful recount. But in Ohio, Obama is in the catbird's seat.

10:07 PM – With Wisconsin called and Florida's uncounted votes in Dade and Broward, Romney's done.

Look at the crowd at Romney HQ. Looks like a morgue. They know.

10:13 PM – Everyone turn to Fox News! Don't miss Brit Hume committing hara-kiri.

10:16 PM – This is over. Florida will recount and it won't matter.

10:25 PM – FOX News pundits now outlining series of compromises winner of second straight election must make to Republicans.

10:39 PM – This post-election commentary on CNN is fucking mind-numbing. MOVE TO CENTER! MOVE TO CENTER! GERGEN SMASH!


  • I'm extremely curious to see the reactions of conservative pundits to the shocking news that the polling numbers were actually reasonably close.

  • I'm interested to see how many standard deviations the voting machines in PA and OH say the vote was from the exit polls

  • I've heard whispers that turnout in VA is going to surpass 2008 levels, and that this is from a surge in Northern Virginia.

    Just gossip at this point, but if they call VA for Obama, I'm going to bed.

  • The other day, some anti-Obama, pro-Romney, Tea Partyish folks were standing on a street corner in an affluent area in Northern California, holding up childish signs that said things like:

    "He lied, people died!"
    "Vote Romney/Ryan, to restore dignity to the USA."
    And they were doing this "Let's go Romney (clap. clap. clapclapclap.)" thing, which reminded me of half-drunk baseball fans, or a high-school pep rally.

    I went home to check, and got all Inigo Montoya on their use of the word "dignity".

    State-by-state could go awkwardly. But if the result is more like Karl Rove's 285 for Romney, than like:


    then it will seem that we've come to a highly improbable result.

  • "Dignity" is the stage name of the male prostitute Karl Rove and Dick Cheney paid to let them humiliate him in the Lincoln bedroom. Trufax.

  • "NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks climbed on Tuesday, the last day of trading before the election results came to a close, as investors looked forward to a resolution to the drawn-out race for the White House."

    God, even the traders don't care who wins, they just want it to be over. Or does it mean Wall Street has long ago bought off both sides and is looking forward to resuming its normal rape and pillage?

  • @Hazy: I hope that's what they're after. Part of me worries that it is more a plan for a Romney "victory".

    "Please help us pile up a bunch of nonsense counter-claims of cheating, so it doesn't look so damn obvious that we stole this thing. Again."

  • anotherbozo –

    Historically, the stock market does better with a Dem in the White House.

    Hell – EVERYTHING does better with a Dem in the White House. Pick any economic or social metric and go look it up. If you don't believe me, you're in for quite a surprise.


  • Entomologista says:

    Xbox Live is streaming the NBC election coverage, if you're like me and have an Xbox but not cable TV.

  • I am a nervous wreck. I remember thinking after Bush was appointed President in 2000, okay, how bad can he possibly screw up. My question eight years later was, how did he fuck up so much stuff in eight short years. I am extremely nervous about a Romney win or appointment.

  • @motherearth: Good points. I put my faith not in the American people's wisdom per se but in Nate Silver and the Vegas bookies. They've said Obama and I wanna believe.

    I'd absolutely love it if Ohio isn't necessary for an Obama win. And/or if Obama prevails without more ugliness/shellgame/intimidation than we've seen already. I lost enough sleep with Sandy.

  • If Nate Silver has got this wrong, would that be the most high-profile fuckup in the history of the world? I don't think I've had a conversation in the past week in which someone didn't mention his name like a talisman against evil.

  • No Elle, there is no "wrong " in probabilities. Just improbabilties. He himself admits that if Romney pulls this out, it's just like he got an inside straight in poker.

  • A government teacher I work with and I were playing around with 270towin yesterday and we gave our projected electoral maps. She said Romney was going to win and MASSACHUSETTS was going to give him the election.



    I weep for the future.

  • I didn't mean the result, Warmbowski, so much as having constructed a defective model. It's really interesting to see one particular analyst, however meta their analysis, being invested with such wide-ranging and intense confidence.

  • I suppose I put more confidence in Nate because he's aggregating individual polls. Is there anyone else that does that? I can't see why that wouldn't always be better than just going with individual polls.

  • I was making a somewhat flippant point about the fact that, from my Facebook and Twitter timelines, Mr Silver seems to be all that is standing between Europe and a meltdown. At election parties across the continent, exit poll rumours are being warded against using Nate as a totem. I'm not suggesting the guy is wrong, just observing that ubiquity brings its own set of pressures.

  • MEANINGLESS SCUTTLEBUTT! I have sources who are saying exit polls in OH & VA are looking extremely good. Like, they might call it by 11pm, good.

  • @ Elle: My father and I (who have made a blood-pact not to discuss the election with anyone else, because each of us is the only one who can talk to the other on that subject without screaming) have been saying "Nate Silver" with the regularity of the mentioning of "Jesus" at a mega-church. I think that Silver's been a talisman of sanity for a lot of people who want to convince themselves that they're not just seeing what they want to see, but what the math confirms. I'm not sure, however, that there's a difference, given how the people who keep mentioning Silver do so either because he's telling them what they want to hear (Obama with odds that make Tyson vs. Hawking look like even money) or because he's not, and they're bringing him up to deride his methodology. (Although in the latter case, such criticism usually boils down to "Well, he obviously *wants* Obama to win.")

    Point being, I think Silver will, regardless of the outcome, be able to "show his work" and explain why he came to the conclusions he did because of the polls and their results, rather than because of the desirability of one candidate or another. So I think he'll be fine either way.

    Besides, as Stewart pointed out last night, being wrong is a consequence-free condition in political reporting.

  • Besides, as Stewart pointed out last night, being wrong is a consequence-free condition in political reporting.

    So very true!

  • Speaking of rank speculation: Re: The Obama lead in Florida–Any chance that voters there saw his work on Sandy (as well as Christie's fawning adulation) and thought "Huh–a man that knows how to handle a hurricane. Screw it, I might actually need one of them"?

  • Speaking of rank speculation: Re: The Obama lead in Florida–Any chance that voters there saw his work on Sandy (as well as Christie's fawning adulation) and thought "Huh–a man that knows how to handle a hurricane. Screw it, I might actually need one of them"?

    If we did have a similar hurricane here I doubt that Rick Scott would be doing it the way Chris Christie is. Scott turned down $2 billion in federal money because he doesn't like high speed rail.

    I take back every bad thing I've ever said about Chris Christie, by the way.

  • @Hazy: thanks. I have so many tabs open, I suppose I could be looking at them all, but I'm lazy and stupid in my old age.

  • Oh yeah, Brother! Leiberman's seat goes blue. I hope it's actually blue this time and not blue bitchy fucking dog.

  • Entomologista says:

    Tommy Thompson is like a herpes virus infecting Wisconsin. He goes away for a while, but keeps reappearing in strange places.

  • Can we just agree to stop with the sports metaphors please? Why is Mariano Rivera being compared to any politician?

  • I'd just like to say 3 things:

    1. Holy shit the coverage is terrible on every goddamn channel but Diane Sawyer is clearly the worst.

    2. WTF is up with CNN being afraid to calls states? They're like 10-15 electoral points per candidate behind other stations

    3. Even if FLA goes to the president, fuck FLA.
    This. OMG this. And fuck you too Ohio (but thanks)

  • Proposal 6 in MI going down in flames. A stunning example of how one greedy old rich man's money can attempt to influence a state full of people to screw themselves and enshrine it in the state constitution. And for a while there back in October, it was looking like a legitimate contender.

    "Canada built that!"

  • And with 0.1% of the vote counted, we are predicting Obama will take Washington State's delegates. Duuhhhh!

  • Did Jon Stewart seriously just make a rape joke? Did he seriously just say "[Candidate] has legitimately raped [Other Candidate]"?

    Guess a play on the whole "legitimate rape" thing, but unfortunately, I'm one of those humorless feminists…..

  • Also, Daily Show, if Ohio subdivides, it will become *three* states, not two. At least, that's what I gathered from 24 long-ass years of living in that place.

  • Obama takes Ohio.

    It's over.

    If I were a praying man, I would thank god.

    Instead, I'll thank Mitt Romney for wanting Detroit to go bankrupt.

    What a god-damned fuckwad.


  • I have Oklahoma facebook friends commiserating and talking about succession (along with Texas). Don't let the door hit 'cha.

  • Guess I'll have to fulfill my promise and send a personal handwritten thank-you note to Rush Limbaugh. I might send one to Ann Coulter too, if I can find an address for her.

  • I hope you are all watching Fox News right now. Karl Rove, in total denial, just got smacked down by the smart people who actually understand electoral statistics. Hilarious.

  • My reactions, in the order in which they occurred to me:

    A. Thank God it's over.

    B. Thank God it's over in a manner that means that the abyss behind Paul Ryan's beady eyes will not regularly stare into my soul for the next four years.

  • John King is a Moron says:

    John King just said that we should look at all the Republican counties, which proves that it's a center-right country. John, the reason those counties are Republican is they can't survive without ag subsidies. And if they really represented the whole country, shouldn't Romney's vote total be way higher?

  • The Republican counties are the ones where the people are outnumbered by (pick one)

    Look at the electoral maps of Ohio and FLA.

    Oh, hell – pick any state.

    Rethugs are largely uneducated, unsocialized rubes.


  • What's going on? All the networks have called Ohio for Obama and given him the election, but politico.com shows Romney leading by almost a full percentage point with 86% reporting, at 12:09 EST.

    Romney's team says they are not conceding Ohio.

  • 4 years and over 1 billion dollars and they couldn't beat a black muslim from Kenya. This wasn't close-it was a blowout.

    Fox news now reporting the end of us politics after Romney's clean campaign lost to Obama's mudslinging. From here on out the gloves are off.

  • Middle Seaman says:

    The lesser of two evils won. More victories such as that and foraging will be a major food supplier.

    Democrats came out in huge numbers, but not for Obama, but because they are scared shitless of the Republicans.

    Several women elected to the senate, great.

    The idiots, i.e. pundits, still talk, terrible.

  • So…can Rove still turn this into the 2000 election all over again? The lack of concession, the Romney-team media blackout, the delaying tactics…all of this makes me think they are determining feasibility of a legal battle.

  • Obama wins. Hurrah!

    No concession speech yet from Romney. Very uncool. He could take a few lessons from McCain.

  • The Ohio thing was a statistical glitch.
    Romney has conceded.
    Krauthammer on Fox says that Republicans do not need to make any structural changes, except to run someone like Rubio or Jeb Bush in order to pull in the Hispanic vote, who are "natural Republicans". The problem this time, he said, was that their candidate was a moderate, who "did not speak conservative as a first language."
    Lucky for us he and the other powers in the Republican party are so clueless.
    My greatest fear is that the Repubs will wake up and run somebody intelligent, sane and likable like Jon Huntsman, but I guess there's little danger of that.

  • c u n d gulag says:


    I enjoyed watching Dick Morris on FUX Noise this morning, trying to explain why his polling numbers had fecal matter on them.

    I may even tune into Radio Rushwanda this morning, for an extra heaping helping of schadenfreude.


  • The election will not be over until the conservatives on my F-list shut up with the goddamned melodrama.

    He didn't take your guns in the first term and he's not going to take them now. He is still drone-bombing away. He has said that defense spending will increase (even if he's not spending it the way you like) and not a bloody one of you is part of the 1% who *might* have to face an unnoticeable tax increase.

    Yes, he treats gays as if they are human beings. No, he has not tried to be the commandant of all uteri. Yes, he's keeping the incredibly lax regulations and bizarre appointments of the Bush administration. And yes, you poor babies got the moderate Republican instead of the Corporate Whore and his theocrat sidekick.

    But keep the wailing and anguish and gnashing of teeth off public forums, for your own sake as well as mine. It just makes you look like spoiled, sullen teenagers who shouldn't have to mow the lawn and don't want to go on a car trip to grandma's ANYWAY.

  • It is not enough to win; others must lose. —Gore Vidal

    I'm glad a few things got defeated this time:

    billionaires trying to buy elections
    voter suppression
    racism, coded and otherwise
    big totally groundless lies
    the myth of the lily-white nation
    tea party insanity
    pretending it's 1950

    now, let's go out and indict a few state election officials, or at least replace them with honest ones.

  • Yeah let's not kid ourselves; a lot of very very rich folks invested in Obama (and not just Soros). They'll get their returns in the next 4 years.

  • Late to the party, @ Allyson:

    "Did Jon Stewart seriously just make a rape joke? Did he seriously just say "[Candidate] has legitimately raped [Other Candidate]"?"

    No and yes.

    Yes he said it.

    And no, I don't think it's a "rape joke". I think it's a joke about the whole "legitimate rape" thing. A meta-joke involving "ironic use of stupid things idiots say about rape" is different from a "rape joke".

    Just my take.

  • A while back I brewed a replica of the honey porter the White House kitchen staff has been brewing for Obama. I popped one open last night during the election coverage. It tasted soooo good!

  • mel in oregon says:

    the two branches of the corpratocracy won, so the obama ass kissers can really cheer. the republicans? well another obama performance like the first debate & they would have won. but really romney had no chance. he tied himself to the tea party with his idiotic vp choice. he wouldn't release his taxes. he hid his money offshore which is why he couldn't release his taxes. his performance at bain was an exercise in firing competent workers so executives could make another killing. long term the republicans are in trouble. minorities are overtaking white people as a majority of americans. so people like oreilly, hannity & limbaugh become more irrelevant with each day's passing. so does the tea party, because it's composed of people that deny events right before their eyes. they live in the past. obama? the cheering will stop when he makes his grand bargain.

  • @mel

    I don't know if the first half of your post details about Mr Romney can be verified at this point, but I have been saying here for the last 18 months that President O was going to win for a lot of the reasons you posted in the second part of your contribution.

    The future is Pink (people here got upset when I said 'Red") We will be Frangertaly before my natural time is up (I'm 66)


  • Steve from Canada says:


    Don't tease!

    Actually, why don't you nice American folk just try being Canada for a while and let us catch up with Frangertaly/Europe?

    Then y'all can pretend that being slightly less progressive than 2000-style Canada is the only just system ordained by God and natural law and stubbornly refuse to join the rest of the English-speaking world for a few more decades. :-)

  • Steve from Canada says:

    Sorry, by "English-speaking," I meant something like "Westernish and mostly whitish-looking."

    Crap, what a giveaway! Could I substitute "Western world" without looking like a buffoon, or has that ship sailed?

  • We will be Frangertaly before my natural time is up

    Entirely up to you (kind of) how you wish your country to be governed, but I suppose those of us who've spent a little time in France, Germany, Italy, and the US might wonder which part of universal education, employment rights, universal healthcare, and delicious sausage Americans would find so distressing?

  • Could I substitute "Western world" without looking like a buffoon, or has that ship sailed?

    I'm led to believe that the French will caucus on this matter after they've returned from their three-hour lunch.

  • @elle

    The good things you mentioned are wonderful but tempered by the fact that the economic wheels seem to be coming off that approach a little faster than over here w/ the nose of the plane currently gobbling turf near Athens (not Georgia.)


  • @bb

    The travails of Greece, and of other Eurozone countries trembling on the brink of coming out of the Euro, don't have anything to do with healthcare, education, employment rights, or sausage.

    The BBC has produced a very handy summary of the causes of the Euro crisis, if you're interested.

  • Austerity measures are just pulling them into a death spiral.

    I think the metaphor I've heard is trying to cure a head-cold via decapitation.
    Sure, it'll cure the cold alright but probably not the best way to do it.

  • Mel has written a semi-coherent, semi-intelligent post.

    Congrats, man!

    Delete the first and last sentences, and you might actually have something.


  • @Elle

    The French, for all their problems, actually have a very highly productive work force. Their output per worker is well within the top 10 and possibly top 5 countries in the world.

    Norway puts us all to shame but the French really don't sit around drinking wine and eating cheese all day long.

  • In other news, Major Kong, the French are also not convening a meeting to discuss the fact that Steve from Canada misspoke.

  • Pas de problème, Major Kong. I'm sure we're all thrown off our game today by staying up late filling our boots with schadenfreude.

  • purpleplatypus says:

    "My greatest fear is that the Repubs will wake up and run somebody intelligent, sane and likable like Jon Huntsman, but I guess there's little danger of that."

    What's so terrible about that possibility? If we see a sane Republican party in the next decade or so, personally my response would be "Mission. Fucking. Accomplished.".

  • we haven't had a sane Republican since Bob Michels was in the house, the 70's. we can dream though. too bad the lies about Europe and evrything have permeated America. so much hatred of the other, so much perversion for control and money.

    and it would be so much cheaper than robbing Peter to pay Paul. which Richard still has to pay for. lol.

    this whole "us vs them" bs has worked so well so long . i sure hope the Republicans fall apart or stay as fragmented as they are now. their hate united to destroy lots of American dreams. their fate works so well. we shall see if they want to be Talibans still. the Latinos and Blacks won't buy their "stuff" if this election was any clue. or will they continue to say, Romeny failed conservatism, rather than admit conservatism united Blacks, whites, latinos, women, gays, etc against their FEAR.

    time will tell. i doubt their fears will subside. we will see. at least there is some hopethe Republican coaltion is dying off. and maybe there is a future for Amnericans who aren't just straight white rich males.

    i sure hope so.

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