AN OPEN LETTER TO TOM COBURN

Sen. Coburn,

We non-Senators can only imagine what it is like to live in the shadow of the senior Senator from your state, Jim Inhofe, given that he is widely recognized as the biggest idiot in the Senate. Surely your mind works overtime concocting ways to steal some attention from that intellectual black hole clad in a cheap suit, and thus I am not surprised that you thought it would be a good idea to be "that guy" – the guy who tries to curry favor with rubes who wallow in their own stupidity by taking a political whack at National Science Foundation funding every couple of years. "Haw haw!", they will exclaim as they slap their obese, diabetic hands together with enough force to dislodge a few pieces of Cheeto from the sticky morass surrounding their gaping maws, "You tell 'um, Tommy!"

Obviously I have a direct interest in your Senate amendment cutting political science funding from the NSF (or as you cheekily call it, political "science" – were you up all night thinking of that one or did you get to bed around 4, 4:30?) but were I not your reasoning would still be alarming in its creativity. Please note that none of the usual positive connotations of "creativity" apply here.

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Your logic is creative in the same sense as the Oklahoma City courthouse bombing.

Let me draw your attention – which I'm sure has wandered in the preceding 45 seconds, waylaid by polysyllabic words – to a specific component of your "argument" before I attempt a retort:

The largest award over the last 10 years under the political science program has been $5.4 million for the University of Michigan for the “American National Election Studies” grant. The grant is to “inform explanations of election outcomes.” The University of Michigan may have some interesting theories about recent elections, but Americans who have an interest in electoral politics can turn to CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, the print media, and a seemingly endless number of political commentators on the internet who pour over this data and provide a myriad of viewpoints to answer the same questions.

Senator, you have a fundamental misunderstanding of political science. But the category of "things Tom Coburn fundamentally misunderstands" is about as exclusive as the admissions criteria to Oklahoma State.
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The idea that we and the talking heads on television are interchangeable or do the same thing speaks not to the uselessness of political science but to your lack of intellectual curiosity and willingness to accept the vein-bulging ranting of Glenn Beck as explanatory of political phenomena. Finding answers means finding evidence, not shouting a handful of competing "theories" into a camera and letting Americans pick the one they think sounds best.

I have no interest in trying to explain to you what political scientists do and why it is valuable other than to summarize it with a single, brief example. What we do, Senator, is try to provide answers supported by empirical evidence – re-read those last two words, because they are the important part – for the millions of your fellow citizens who look at you and wonder, "How in the hell does a dipshit like this get elected to the Senate?

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" And the kind of taxpaying citizens who want an answer to that question are the same ones who aren't willing to accept the illiterate rantings of talk radio hosts as an explanation. They want an answer based on research, data, and tests of falsifiable hypotheses. That's where we come in. That's why we use the staggering sum of $91 million over ten years (That must be, what, half the Federal budget? Three-quarters?) to do work you are not only unwilling but, let's be frank, unable to understand.

I applaud your courage, as it is not easy to be William Jennings Bryan in a modern Scopes Trial. It takes real courage to expose yourself to this level of humiliation in furtherance of your heartfelt commitment to fiscal prudence. Most of all, it takes wisdom; wisdom to listen to the suggestion of whichever 23 year-old staffer, still smarting over the F he received on his Legislative Politics research paper for writing a half-assed pastiche of opinion and sub-Hannity rhetoric, proposed this gambit. Recognizing genius is a form of genius itself, Senator.

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Regards,
Ed __________
Department of Political Science
University of (far better than any school in Oklahoma)

JESUS: THE FORGOTTEN FOUNDER

I really dislike the "hey here is some thing I found, click on it and my work is done" style of blogging and I do my best to avoid it. Hopefully I am successful more often than not.

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But not today. No, today you just need to look at this. Because I have laid eyes upon one of the most intoxicating trainwrecks created by man. You know Peak Oil, right? Well this might be Peak Wingnut. After this, the next rung on the crazy ladder is eating one's own crap.

You have been suitably warned. And it is work safe, unless your workplace has a policy against retardedness. So here. Look at this. For the love of God, look at it. Do not overlook the fact that it is interactive.

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Scroll your mouse over each person in the painting for a fun civics lesson and explanation of artistic intent.

If there is something preventing you from being willing or able to look at this, let me briefly summarize.
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It is an interactive painting entitled "One Nation under God" which depicts Jesus giving the Constitution to a small child (who will in turn give it to his "Handicapped Child" brother, if I may infer that from the captions). Not only are historical figures included – Washington, Lincoln, Hamilton, and so on – but several cultural stock characters are also present, from "Mr. Hollywood" to "Liberal News Reporter" to "Professor" clutching a copy of The Origin of the Species to "Supreme Court Justice" shielding his face from Christ for the shame of his rulings.

This is part painting, part history lesson, and part holy shit what in the hell is wrong with people. Enjoy all three components. Enjoy the artist's skilled hand with the brush, evident from the fact that Ronald Reagan looks like the dad from The Wonder Years and John Adams appears to be a presenter on The Price is Right. Learn important facts like that farmers "truly are the backbone of America" or that "There are many good people in America, they are not all Christian" as he depicts an immigrant (note: "I wanted him to have a look of shock on his face when he sees where the source of America's greatness comes from when he sees Christ holding the Constitution.") Most importantly, sit quietly and contemplatively as you try to absorb how deeply disturbed a nation must be to get to this point.

I've got nothing. Nothing else. Just look at it. Learn from it. Learn all you can. It is our only hope.

GEORGE WILL GETS HIS LONG AWAITED FJM TREATMENT

Having already established that George Will is a blithering idiot who creates a thin veneer of intelligence with diction, word choice, and tie selection his eventual FJMing was all but inevitable. His tendency to write things so rambling, forgettable, and devoid of substance has delayed the process for more than a year, but his latest exercise in autofellatio ("Olympic Gold for Narcissism") surpasses my admittedly high standards for a pride-obliterating verbal bitchslapping. In an ideological movement composed almost entirely of histrionics and bullshit this Olympics thing has to qualify as the biggest non-event in the history of efforts to manufacture scandal. It's so stupid that the hearts of the pundits don't really seem to be into it; it's like they are going through the motions. Except for Owl Man. Owl Man is legitimately lathered up. I hope you're ready for a white-knuckle ride on Six Flags' newest adventure coaster, George Will's Retardinator.

In the Niagara of words spoken and written about the Obamas' trip to Copenhagen, too few have been devoted to the words they spoke there. Their separate speeches to the International Olympic Committee were so dreadful, and in such a characteristic way, that they might be symptomatic of something that has serious implications for American governance.

"Niagara of words." Huh. Looks like George Will is about to criticize someone for verbosity. George Will. The man who can't order a pizza in less than 800 words. If only there were some sort of analogy involving cookware that applied to this situation.

Both Obamas gave heartfelt speeches about … themselves. Although the working of the committee's mind is murky, it could reasonably have rejected Chicago's bid for the 2016 games on aesthetic grounds — unless narcissism has suddenly become an Olympic sport.

Really? That's weird. I'd have thought they would speak about the Olympics. Hmm. I wonder if this is…nah. Owl Man would never distort the President's words. Yep, I just found a transcript of Obama's speech. It is entirely about him. He starts with 20 minutes about how much he can bench press before regaling the committee with tales of how he makes the sun rise each morning. Michelle mostly talked about how her husband is hung like a mastodon, although she did note that her farts cure AIDS and cancer.

In the 41 sentences of her remarks, Michelle Obama used some form of the personal pronouns "I" or "me" 44 times. Her husband was, comparatively, a shrinking violet, using those pronouns only 26 times in 48 sentences. Still, 70 times in 89 sentences was sufficient to convey the message that somehow their fascinating selves were what made, or should have made, Chicago's case compelling.

Huh. Well, people often give speeches in the first person. In fact, I'm not entirely clear on another way to do it. When lecturing it's possible to avoid using first person, but was he supposed to be lecturing them? I think the purpose was to make a subjective argument in an effort to persuade the people on the committee. Under such circumstances I suppose one might use a phrase like "I believe Chicago is the best choice…" or so on.

You know, narcissistic crap like that.

In 2008, Obama carried the three congressional districts that contain Northern California's Silicon Valley with 73.1, 69.6 and 68.4 percent of the vote. Surely the Valley could continue its service to him by designing software for his speechwriters' computers that would delete those personal pronouns, replacing them with the word "sauerkraut" to underscore the antic nature of their excessive appearances.

Oh George, you wit! I'm beta testing the software as we speak. Mine is programmed to replace "George Will" with "asshammer.

" As you can see from this post, the kinks are still being worked out.

And — this will be trickier — the software should delete the most egregious cliches sprinkled around by the tin-eared employees in the White House speechwriting shop. The president told the Olympic committee that: "At this defining moment," a moment "when the fate of each nation is inextricably linked to the fate of all nations" in "this ever-shrinking world," he aspires to "forge new partnerships with the nations and the peoples of the world."

This really is a new thing, the idea of Presidents using cliches. Seriously. Brand new. I hear that Ronald Reagan didn't even have speeches written for him. Every word, spontaneous and off-the-cuff.

Good grief. The memory of man runneth not to a moment that escaped being declared "defining" — declared such by someone seeking to inflate himself by inflating it. Also, enough already with the "shrinking" world, which has been so described at least since Magellan set sail, and probably before that.

What were you saying about a "Niagara of words," Owl Man? Anything to work in a Magellan reference, I suppose. Americans relate to Magellan, unlike that fucking asshole Vasco da Gama. Just trust me on this one, G-Dub: don't mention Vasco da Gama.

Americans love their 16th Century conquistadors, but as a people we have been known to fly into a blind rage and uproot the nearest tree at the mere mention of that Portuguese dickwad.

And by the way, the "fate" of — to pick a nation at random — Chile is not really in any meaningful sense "inextricably linked" to that of, say, Chad.

It betrays Owl Man's ignorance of international relations to see how casually he disregards the geostrategic importance of Chileo-Chadian relations, which I believe are currently at an all time low after the Chileans pulled the plug on that undersea tunnel to Chad.

But meaningful sense is often absent from the gaseous rhetoric that makes it past White House editors — are there any? — and onto the president's teleprompter.
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Ha ha! He uses speechwriters and a teleprompter! George W. Bush not only refused to, but he once choked an intern unconscious for asking him if he'd like a teleprompter. He grabbed 19 year old Patrick Henry College sophomore Gideon Kleindorfer by the throat and roared "GET THAT FUCKING THING OUT OF MY FACE! I SPEAK AS I LIVE: WITH HONOR, INTEGRITY, AND SELF-RELIANCE."

Consider one recent example: Nine days before speaking in Copenhagen, the president, addressing the United Nations General Assembly, intoned: "No one nation can or should try to dominate another nation." What was the speechwriter thinking when he or she assembled that sentence? The "should" was empty moralizing; the "can" was nonsense redundantly refuted by history. Does our Cicero even glance at his speeches before reading them in public?

Good one, George. Tell us more, seeing as how the party that brought us George W. Bush, Bobby Jindal, and Sarah Palin clearly has the moral high ground here. Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin, who George Will has defended in print and who, without speechwriters and a teleprompter, sounds like Chewbacca while his hemorrhoids are being lanced.

Becoming solemn in Copenhagen, Obama said: "No one expects the games to solve all our collective problems." That's right, no one does. So why say that? Then, shifting into the foggy sentimentalism of standard Olympics blather, he said "peaceful competition between nations represents what's best about our humanity" and "it brings us together" and "it helps us to understand one another."

If only McCain/Palin had won. God, what salad days for rhetoric and great oratory we would be living right now.

Actually, sometimes the Olympic games are a net subtraction from international comity.

That's why we should have elected McCain, who would have stridently campaigned against the Olympics. The IOC would have come close to begging, "Please, Mr. President! Let us put the games in Chicago!" and he's look them square in the eye and tell them to kiss his withered old ass before pistol-whipping IOC chairman Jacques Rogge on the convention dais.

But Obama quickly returned to speaking about … himself:

"Nearly one year ago, on a clear November night, people from every corner of the world gathered in the city of Chicago or in front of their televisions to watch the results of the U.S. presidential election. Their interest wasn't about me as an individual. Rather, … "

It was gallant of the president to say to the Olympic committee that Michelle is "a pretty big selling point for the city." Gallant, but obviously untrue. And — this is where we pass from the merely silly to the ominous — suppose the president was being not gallant but sincere.
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Perhaps the premise of the otherwise inexplicable trip to Denmark was that there is no difficulty, foreign or domestic, that cannot be melted by the sunshine of the Obama persona. But in the contest between the world and any president's charm, bet on the world.

What could possibly be your point, George? What was he supposed to be saying? Did the other nations' figureheads – they were all there, by the way – whip out PowerPoint slides, revenue projections, and a cost-benefit analysis? Hmm. I'd be willing to bet that they did the rhetorical equivalent of the "jerking off" motion one would make to amuse one's friends during a speech by George Will.

Presidents often come to be characterized by particular adjectives: "honest" Abe Lincoln, "Grover the Good" Cleveland, "energetic" Theodore Roosevelt, "idealistic" Woodrow Wilson, "Silent Cal" Coolidge, "confident" FDR, "likable" Ike Eisenhower. Less happily, there were "Tricky Dick" Nixon and "Slick Willie" Clinton. Unhappy will be a president whose defining adjective is "vain."

"Grover the Good"??? Who is the name of sweet baby Jesus refers to Grover F-ing Cleveland as "Grover the Good"? Cleveland. The man whose only accomplishment was being a pitiful nonentity of a President on two nonconsecutive occasions.

But yes, history will surely remember Obama as "Barack the Vain" or perhaps "Barack the Vain Nigerian Muslim." And you know what? I'd take that in a heartbeat over how future generations are going to remember his predecessor, not to mention his would-be successors to the Republican throne.

A PARABLE

A group of a dozen people are taking a pleasure cruise on a yacht. When they reach the middle of the ocean, one by one the passengers start showing symptoms of a terrible Ebola-like illness.

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They are vomiting and have 106 degree fevers. It is obvious that without medical attention some of them will be in deep trouble.
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The captain hops on the satellite phone and calls a Medevac – and discovers that a Medevac costs upwards of $50,000. Fortunately people on yachts tend to be pretty well-to-do, so he informs his passengers that everyone will need to pony up five grand. Problem solved. But the recession has hit the investor class hard, and the group of ostensibly wealthy people are actually struggling to make ends meet. They worry about their substantial debts and tell the captain to hold off on the Medevac. Why spend all that money – more accurately, why assume even more debt on the American Express – when the yacht will probably make it to land in time to get everyone taken care of anyway? One must keep an eye on the bottom line, after all.

Ten days later the yacht floats into the harbor and all but one of the passengers is dead. But at least they didn't charge that extra $5000. That would have been dumb.

I tend to be pretty conservative with my finances and I pay off my debts as rapidly as humanly possible. I simply don't like having that obligation hanging over my head, nor do I feel good about borrowing money I don't have unless I absolutely have to. Yet even I am dumbfounded at the extent to which "the national debt" and "the deficit" continually paralyze the thought processes of the American public and our elected officials. The most complete and enduring victory of Reaganism has been the demonization of deficit spending, which is ironic given how much of it Reagan and his GOP successors managed to do. Cue Krugman and Reich to explain – yes, unbelievably we actually need this explained to us as a nation – why unemployment is more important than short-term deficit reduction. It did not take the GOP long after failing to block the stimulus legislation to start harping on "paying down the deficit," as empty suit and toupee John Thune opines in the increasingly irrelevant Editorial section of the Wall Street Journal. You know the drill. Blah blah debt. Blah blah deficit. Blah blah our children. All tired arguments, all of which were conspicuously absent from the mouths of people like Thune between 2000 and 2008.

No, deficit spending is not a good thing. Yes, in an ideal world we'd have a balanced budget and a surplus (and don't forget that prior to George W. we had both). But with 10% of Americans unemployed by the "official" tally and with real (U6) unemployment/underemployment approaching 20% it is not time to start pretending like we give a shit about deficit spending.

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It's time to figure out how to get more paychecks in more hands so that we don't have one in five adults in the workforce unemployed or working at KFC. Krugman was right nine months ago; the problem is that the White House and Congress wimped out with the stimulus. They spent enough to jack up the deficit but not nearly enough to be effective. If you're going to do it, do it. Now that the half-hearted stimulus has failed to effect dramatic changes, although things are starting to look up a bit, we are at a fork in the road. We can either spend enough to truly stimulate economic growth or we can run for the safety of the kind of emotion-based economic "policy" that consistently leads to failed interventions in the private sector. Since the President already allowed the clear minority to dictate the outcomes of the first stimulus debate, I'll let you take a wild guess at how things will proceed from here. The need for action continues to outpace the political will for it.

DIVIDING BY ZERO

Is there any refrain more tired or more effective at immediately halting your desire, need, or social obligation to pay attention to the words coming out of someone's mouth than the phrase "with my tax dollars"?

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It simultaneously betrays the speaker's wildly inflated sense of self-importance and the presence of deep seated issues with the basic concept of living in a society with other people.
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Leaving aside the fact that 99% of Americans, and certainly all of those lazy enough to rely on such a stupid talking point, don't have the slightest idea how tax dollars are actually spent (I think 75% is paid out to teenage immigrant unwed mothers and the remaining 25% is funneled through the National Endowment for the Arts to support preverted and blasphemous sculpture) the idea that we get to pick and choose what we do and do not wish to pay for is, well, retarded.

But that doesn't stop tax bitchers, many of whom are unafraid of rolling up their pants and wading boldly into Lake Retarded. The latest meme, helpfully regurgitated by the non-partisan and objective journalists on the right, is the "I morally object to 'my tax dollars' being used to fund abortions!"

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Don't worry, teabaggers. It is literally impossible for your tax dollars to fund abortions.
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Or anything else. Because there is a very, very good chance that you're not paying a fucking dime in Federal income tax. This year, 47% of households filing with the IRS will have a Federal income tax obligation of zero. For incomes under $50,000 (which describes more than half of households in the country) a whopping 69.5% will pay not one dime, with the remaining 30% paying something on the order of 15% on the fraction of their income which will qualify as taxable.

Stop for a minute and let that sink in. Think of all the wailing and gnashing of teeth, the screaming teabaggers, the stupid protests, and the open talk about the need for someone to murder the President or at least depose him.

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Those right-wing drones sure can make a lot of noise but as sure as the Pope wears a funny hat, there is a greater than 50% chance that these mouthbreathers won't be paying a penny in hated income taxes this year.

I realize that these people are almost comically immune to facts and their conception of "taxes" they pay "the government" is an amalgam of entitlement programs (Medicaid, SSI) and non-Federal obligations like property taxes. Nonetheless, this would seem to be a pertinent piece of information to provide tp your asshole coworker who, despite your repeated and increasingly desperate entreaties, will not turn down the damn Glenn Beck.

IRAN, PART II: COMING THIS FALL ON THE MILITARY CHANNEL

On Monday I touched on the impracticality and infeasibility of the alleged Iranian plan to initiate war with Israel, specifically with a nuclear strike. There simply is no way to spin this in Iran. Even a conventional weapon strike on Israel would trigger a massive military response from Israel, NATO, and Uncle Sam. A nuclear strike against Israel would result in Iran resembling the surface of Mercury within 24 hours. Whether nuclear or conventional, American or multinational, the response would reduce Iran to the Stone Age and doubtlessly involve many thousands of deaths.

It doesn't sound like something sane people would do, and I despise the neocon "(Insert tinpot dictator here) is a Hitler! He is bent on national suicide!" rhetoric. But disregarding that argument leaves me at a loss to explain their recent missile tests. From the earliest days of the Cold War, missile and warhead tests have been nothing but an exercise in dick-waving and saber-rattling. You do it to give your enemy second thoughts, to instill fear, to give evidence of a "credible deterrent." And what kind of idiot would believe that Western Europe and the U.
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S. are going to be impressed by short- and medium-range ballistic missiles of primitive design and minimal accuracy? Iran isn't rattling a saber so much as they are rattling a wet noodle. Their current missile technology roughly approximates America's in 1955.

So they're not trying to intimidate us. They are showing off an offensive capability. It could not be considered a deterrent unless the leaders of Iran are literally retarded. So, like North Korea, I am convinced that the government in Iran is composed entirely of unstable, unpredictable morons who now have effective delivery vehicles for a variety of weapons. Since a diplomatic solution is unlikely, I think we're on the path to another military one (with both of those countries, but let's focus on Iran for now). Sure, maybe we'll get lucky and Iran will undergo internal upheaval. The current government barely made it through an election a few months ago. But of course we can't bank on that happening.

Here we see the ultimate folly of our misadventure in Iraq. We simply don't have the manpower, the resources, or the national will to engage in another military escapade in the Middle East. We pissed all of those things away in Iraq while legitimate threats festered in other countries. So what can we do? The answer is simple: we can do the only thing we're any good at doing. We will bomb the everloving shit out of Iran, cripple it, and walk away.

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Think Gulf War I instead of Gulf War II.

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I think that at some point in the next two or three years Iran's belligerence will get to the point that policymakers will decide to act. But rather than get engaged in another ground war, they will punt on "regime change" and simply reduce Iran to smoking rubble. They will provide years and years worth of footage for new series on The Military Channel: bombs laser-guided down chimneys, unmanned Predator drones swooping in to level villages, and night-vision footage of smoldering weapon stashes. They will decide that their only concern is disarmament. They will be more than happy to let the current batch of lunatics stay in power so long as they're neutered. Every inch of Iran's nuclear and military infrastructure is already pre-targeted. It makes too much sense, especially given the depletion of our ground forces, for spineless American politicians to choose any other option.

Think about it. What are we good at anymore? We positively suck at "spreading democracy" and all that horseshit. We've failed at regime change for 100 years. We haven't had a meaningful diplomatic success in decades. We are good at sending our aircraft carriers (of which we have about 95% of the total global supply) to the shores of some unworthy opponent and bombing the sweet holy fuck out of them. Anything that comes before or after that is beyond us. We have military technology, especially of the aeronautical and blowuppable kind, that is light years beyond what the rest of the globe can field. Applying it is our only talent nowadays.

Civilian casualties will be horrific (after all, every video of a bomb surgically flying into a window hides a hundred other videos of bombs missing by half a mile) but we'll do what we usually do and lay the moral culpability for them on Iran's leaders. Look what you made us do! Look at how little they care for the lives of their people! The only silver lining is that I fundamentally believe that Iranians are decent, reasonable, and pragmatic people, and as soon as they realize they are all about to be used for USAF target practice it could spur a change in the country's political system. But if I had to put my life's savings on it, I'd call Vegas right now and say "$53.12 on air strikes in Iran by 2011."

I WANT TO MARRY A LIGHTHOUSE KEEPER

(note: Throughout this entry please do as I have been doing for an hour: hum "I want to be a right-wing pundit" to the tune of "I want to marry a lighthouse keeper.")

I am becoming a right winger and changing the format of this blog. My style of argumentation will be changing – perhaps even changing radically – but it's going to be so much easier on me. Harder on you, because everything I write will be terrible, but so long as it saves me time I don't care. Ayn Rand is beaming with pride from beyond the grave.

I have been inspired to make this abrupt change by Dan Riehl, one of the internet's most consistently idiotic bags-o'-dicks finest sources of reasoned political rhetoric, and his recent musings on murdered Census-taker Bill Sparkman. Dan is a to-the-point kind of guy, so he helpfully entitles the piece "Was Census Worker Bill Sparkman a Child Predator?" for readers short on time. Then he reassures the skeptical reader that he has "done a fair amount of crime blogging mixed in with politics over time. One doesn't rule anything in or out without some firm answers" to remind us that he has expertise and knows of what he speaks.

Taking a cue from Riehl, I'm going to helpfully summarize the argument in case you don't have the time to learn all there is to be learned from it.

  • 1. What if he was? He might have been. (i.e., "Everyone knows Custer died at Little Bighorn. What this novel presupposes is, maybe he didn't?")
  • 2. All I'm doing is bringing up a possible explanation. Nothing at all should be implied from my immediate leap to "child molester" among the literal millions of things I could have leaned forward and pulled directly out of my puckered ass.
  • 3. We are being irresponsible if we let social mores prevent us from speculating. The Liberal Media could learn a thing or two here. Maybe if they were more willing to make shit up and say it on air they would be better at their jobs.
  • 4. He didn't have a full-time job, a wife, or kids. Two words: KID FUCKER. (Note: he had kids. Nice reporting, Dan!)
  • 5. He was a substitute teacher but didn't have "a teaching degree." (Note: Except for his Bachelor's Degree in Education from Western Governors University. OK, that's an online school, but it's accredited, and he completed the degree requirements. You win at reporting, Riehl-dawg!)
  • 6. He was an Eagle Scout. Why would anyone be in the Boy Scouts unless they wanted to finger kids?

    The only question is how I'm going to spend all of the additional free time this technique will provide. I may trouble myself to churn out a 180 page right-wing best seller over a weekend, but I think I can better serve humanity by applying my sleuthing skills to more crimes. Wait, I no longer give a shit about serving humanity. The book will be on the shelves by October. Email me to reserve an early copy of The Great Fingering: Obama's Army of Preverts and their Plan to Touch Your Child's Bathing Suit Area.

    (Thanks, S,N! You get a free copy of the hardcover)

  • IRAN, PART I: THE JET STREAM

    I have some readers who are much older than I am, and this image should look familiar to anyone born before 1970.

    This is the projected effects of nuclear fallout on the continental U.S. after what a Soviet nuclear strike would most likely have looked like. The average person assumes that nuclear war is about killing as many of the other side's civilians as possible. In reality the first two or three waves of targets are all strategic and military with the odd major city thrown in (Moscow, D.C., and New York would most certainly have fried in the first strike because of their economic and political value). But the Commies would have been far, far more interested in striking Grand Forks, ND and Omaha, NE than Chicago or Los Angeles. Their goal would have been to destroy as much of the U.S. retaliatory capacity as possible, which would lead them to the vast ICBM fields scattered across the Great Plains, Strategic Air Command in Omaha, and Cheyenne Mountain in rural Colorado, a.k.a. NORAD. Of course there is no possible way that the Soviets could have destroyed enough of our ability to wage war to prevent themselves from being destroyed in the return fire. The inverse was also true, which is often suggested as the reason there was no World War III. But I digress.

    In targeting the vast empty middle of the U.S. a theoretical limited Soviet strike would seem to have spared a good portion of the population. Unfortunately those dozens of high-megaton explosions in the Plains would have generated enough fallout to irradiate everything and everyone downwind – which just happens to be about 75% of the American population. So people who were spared being fried in an explosion would get to enjoy a slow death from radiation poisoning. Unpleasant stuff to say the least. It may take historians a century or two to figure out A) how humanity came so close to letting it happen and B) how in the hell we managed to avoid it.

    Now consider Iran.

    We are well aware that Iran's leaders talk a good game, especially when the topic is Israel. They go on about "pushing Israel into the sea" and wiping the country from the face of the Earth and blah blah blah. And the global concern over the Iranian nuclear program is focused mostly on Israel. No one seriously thinks Iran could deliver a nuclear weapon to the U.S. or even much of Europe, recent short-range ballistic missile tests notwithstanding. But let's say Bill Kristol and all of his like-minded colleagues are right. Let's take the leap of faith and assume that Iran can enrich enough plutonium to assemble a working warhead. They can deliver it with some accuracy and they intend to use it against Israel.

    Such an attack, if it hit a major city like Tel Aviv, would kill a vast number of Israelis; 50,000 would not be an unreasonable guess, not counting radiation poisoning. It would also irradiate about half of Iran when the winds carried all of the radioactive dust eastward. A larger-scale attack – several warheads hitting multiple sites in Israel – would only compound the problem. So one of three things must be true:

    1. The Iranian leaders are suicidal fanatics who are willing to kill a good portion of their own people (not to mention all of their Muslim brothers in Jordan, Syria, and other nations which would be blanketed with fallout) to inflict some damage which fall far short of destroying Israel. Would it be a terrible loss in Israel? Of course. But factoring in the NATO response, which we must imagine would be swift and utterly devastating to Iran, they would be committing national suicide to inflict a couple hundred thousand deaths on Israel.

    2. Iran does not understand what nuclear fallout and/or wind are.

    3. This is all just bullshit posturing and bold talk from an unstable regime full of unstable people who realize that their proposed actions would fail to accomplish the goal of destroying Israel while bringing swift and utter destruction to all of Iran.

    Accepting #1 requires one too many drinks off of the right-wing demonization-of-enemies Kool-Aid. To say that this is their strategy is just an updated version of "The bloodthirsty Commie will stop at nothing to kill every last freedom-loving American." Since #2 is highly dubious, that sort of narrows it down…

    KEEPING THE FLAME

    Ah, Arizona. The youngest (continental U.S.) state. Land of the mighty cactus, the mighty Grand Canyon, and the mighty Larry Fitzgerald. Reliable, conservative Arizona, the state that hath bequeathed us Johns McCain and Kyl, the Minutemen, and Sheriff Joe Arpaio. It's the kind of state in which an unelected governor could reasonably be expected to declare that she has been sent by God to lead the voters through this dark economic night of the soul.

    It is a sad commentary on our times, and our collective intellectual regression to the Dark Ages, that Gov. Jan Brewer can say the following without raising many eyebrows or striking Americans as out of the ordinary:

    "I firmly believe that God has placed me in this powerful position of Arizona's governor to help guide our state through the difficulty that we are currently facing…And that has caused me, of course, to be grateful that we are a country of Christianity."

    Excellent points, Governor.

    This is the kind of crazy usually reserved for State Reps in Mississippi and the Florida panhandle. But Arizona has been on a tear lately, elevating to elected office a series of nutcases and felons that would make an Illinois Governor blush. Not content to elect the occasional fascist sheriff or State Senator who happens to be on white supremacist email lists, voters have previously filled Brewer's position with people Republicans who can't keep from running afoul of the law.

    Brewer's messiah complex may be a refreshing change for Arizonans after Gov. Fife Symington was convicted of felony bank fraud and hounded out of office in 1997. And he followed into office Evan Mecham, who is, for my money, the elected official in our nation's illustrious history who most perfectly combined disregard for the law with the raw power of batshit insanity. A sanitized biography notes:

    While governor, Mecham became known for statements and actions that were widely perceived as insensitive to minorities. Among these actions were the cancellation of the state's Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, attributing high divorce rates to working women, and his defense of the word "pickaninny."

    We know of Arizona's troubled history with the MLK holiday, a history in which Mecham played the role of peacemaker by stating that "King doesn't deserve a holiday" and telling black community leaders "You folks don't need another holiday. What you folks need are jobs." In response to charges that he was racist, he reassured voters that "I've got black friends. I employ black people. I don't employ them because they are black; I employ them because they are the best people who applied for the cotton-picking job." He was quite the uniter. He also had a penchant for filling his executive appointments with felons:

    Mecham appointed Alberto Rodriguez as superintendent of the Arizona Department of Liquor Licenses and Control while he was under investigation for murder. Other questionable nominations included a director of the Department of Revenue whose company was in arrears by US$25,000 on employment compensation payments, an appointee for head of prison construction who had served prison time for armed robbery, and a former Marine nominated as a state investigator who had been court-martialled twice. Other political appointees who caused Mecham embarrassment were an education adviser, James Cooper, who told a legislative committee "If a student wants to say the world is flat, the teacher doesn't have the right to prove otherwise," and Sam Steiger, the Governor's special assistant, who was charged with extortion.

    After running the state's economy into the ground, thanks in no small part to the MLK-related boycott, and serially pissing off every member of his own party or any other, Mecham scored an unprecedented and since unequaled feat in the history of American democracy. He is the only elected official to simultaneously be under impeachment, subject to a recall election (which he blamed on "a band of homosexuals and dissident Democrats"), and under felony indictment (for embezzling campaign money). Read that again. There was a race to indict him before he could be impeached before he could be taken down at the polls. It's the Asshole Trifecta!tm

    I can't say whether Jan Brewer represents an improvement over this parade of losers but it is clear that Arizona might need to stop foisting presidential candidates onto the country until it can elect a Governor who isn't insane, a felon, or an insane felon. It's not looking good for Brewer in the 2010 Governor's race, but it's not looking good for Arizona that she made it within a mile of the Governor's chair let alone in it.

    THE TROIKA OF STUPID

    Behold the conservative pant-shitting over the President's decision to remove "anti-ballistic missile" (ABM) systems from Poland. It's a cowardly retreat, a stab-in-the-back, an unspeakable betrayal of our noble Polish allies. As the internet's resident Polack I feel compelled to point out three things.

    First, you do realize that ABMs don't actually work, right? I don't mean that in the grand strategic sense. I mean they don't work. In the illustrious history there have been some impressively expensive and idiotic boondoggles, but the five-decade quest to develop a missile that can intercept and destroy another missile is easily the most grandiose. From Nike Zeus to Skybolt to Skybolt II to "Star Wars" to the Patriot Missile to the latest iteration of this stupidity (THAAD), ABMs have been Moby Dick to generations of Republicans and military fetishists. Just imagine, a protective umbrella under which we could act with impunity! The problem is that after pouring literally billions of dollars on this problem for five decades we are no closer to solving the monumental technical obstacles from basic target-launch-intercept issues to they systems' vulnerability to simple countermeasures. Jack Hitt and Frontline do an excellent job of explaining that no matter how hard Raytheon, the DoD, and others try to rig the tests to make these things look successful, they're not. The long version is too long, so the short version is that under optimal conditions (i.e., a DoD test in which the slowest, biggest, simplest, easiest-to-hit target is fired on a predetermined flight path and the ABM system is given all of the target flight characteristics in advance) these things stand about a 15% chance of intercepting a target as sophisticated as a 1960s Soviet IRBM. In real world conditions – you know, the exact opposite of all of that – that falls to 1 or 2%. If it rains, it's effectively zero. Or if the entity launching the missile invests $100 in hollow metal or plastic decoy warheads (i.e., one real warhead and a slew of dummies on one missile in a MIRV configuration) and the offensive warhead has a better chance of being struck by lightning than an ABM. Understand that. Even if we vomit another $100 billion into this technology, any advances we achieve can be defeated by cheap metal cylinders shaped like warheads.

    These things are fucking useless. That's kinda important.

    Second, no offense intended to any of my Polish brethren, but the United States does not give two shits about Poland. Nor should it. Sorry. Russia is in the top five nations on Earth in terms of military size and oil & gas reserves (which they are currently using to strangle Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and, increasingly, Western Europe into submission). They are an economic and military power. Poland is Poland. Strategically – and American strategic interests are supposed to be the important thing here, right? – it is about the least important place on Earth. It is surrounded by nations either far more powerful (Germany, France, etc.) or far crappier (Belarus, Estonia, Moldova, etc.) and thus more desperate and easily bought when the U.S. decides it needs an ally of convenience in the area. That Barack Obama is unwilling to antagonize the unstable Russians over Poland shouldn't be flooring anyone. Bellyache all you want about "betrayal" or how we "sold Poland out." You're goddamn right we did, because doing otherwise doesn't make the slightest sense if it complicates our relationship with Russia. My people are in an unenviable position. If the U.S. needs something it will ask Germany, and if it wants something it will dangle some money in front of Azerbaijan or some other collection of hovels. Poland's smack in the middle and thus irrelevant.

    Third, in what universe is "We can't show weakness in front of the Russians!!" a winning issue in 2010, 2012, and beyond? Does the GOP think that resonates with anyone under the age of 55 anymore? We know these people just cannot come to grips with the end of the Cold War and they've been searching for a way to keep fighting it since its conclusion, but this is how the Republicans are going to claw their way back to electoral relevance? Good luck with that, kids. Seriously. You really have your finger on the pulse of the American voter, not to mention a keen understanding of contemporary geopolitics.

    Those three things need to be said; they provide crucial context in which to frame the pant-shitting.