WHAT MOTIVATES YOU

Jeffrey Toobin, in what rapidly proved to be an understatement, called McCain's speech on Thursday "shockingly bad." Having finally forced myself to watch portions of it (in addition to the usual transcript-hunting) I lack the energy to talk about the specifics of his random fusillade of rhetorical anti-matter.

My reaction was simple and focused: if you get inspired by watching John McCain speak – truly, deeply inspired as a person – there is something wrong with you. You are the kind of person who, when really letting your hair down, has a couple of sugar-free Nilla Wafers and fat-free Cool Whip. You enjoy slices of white bread dipped in room temperature tap water. You have to water down your caffiene-free Diet Rite because it is too strong. You find Jay Leno's comedy funny but a little too edgy. You turned down Cher tickets because you don't like hard rock. Your collection of ties ranges from red to magenta. You read Family Circus.

And, apparently, you respond well to Crazy Teethtm.

ON LANGUAGE

Hypothetically – and this is purely hypothetical because of course I would never mock a topic widely considered to be a social taboo – let's say I photoshopped a picture of Cindy McCain holding Sarah Palin's youngest child with a caption such as "OMG!
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I HAS A TARD!" That would pretty much make me the worst person on Earth, right? It would be so mean that it might actually cause me problems beyond the internet – for example, my students, employer, and potential employers could find it deeply offensive and use it as (justified) grounds for filing formal complaints against me, refusing to renew my contract, or not hiring me in the first place, respectively. And God forbid I ever ran for public office; my insensitivity to the developmentally disabled would be a disaster of campaign-ending proportions (unless I ran as a Republican, in which case IOKIYAR takes over). In short, I would be a bad person and widely recognized as such.

Let's say, on the other hand, that I was the Vice Presidential nominee of a major political party rather than a guy who makes less than your bus driver but has internet access. Say that instead of making a jpeg image disrespecting Downs Syndrome I used a child with DS as a prop during a nationally-televised address, passing him or her from person to person so that everyone present could hold him (facing outward) and smile into the camera for a moment or two. Let's say that, rather than calling said child a tard, I cynically exploited him or her to not-so-subtly communicate with a core constituency. And then I followed it by asserting, with all the phony indignation I could muster, that of course I wasn't using a tard as a prop, I was merely expressing my love for my child (and allowing the wife of the nominee, who I'd known for about 4 days, do the same).

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One of the two scenarios I have described here would get me fired. The other would, in part, qualify me for the highest office in the land. Lesson learned; it's OK to cynically exploit the handicapped for political gain, but not to use insulting (and hilarious) language when describing them.

Reagan's first Secretary of the Interior, James Watt, learned this lesson well.

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His political career ended when he described his staff thusly during a speech: "I have a black, a woman, two Jews and a cripple. And we have talent." That ended his political career.

It didn't end his career that, as Secretary, he quintupled the acres of Federal land leased to the coal mining industry. That he attempted to eliminate the Land Water Conservation Fund. That he said about his attitude toward conservation "I do not know how many future generations we can count on before the Lord returns, whatever it is we have to manage with a skill to leave the resources needed for future generations." That he described his mission as "We will mine more, drill more, cut more timber." That he took the most aggressive measures to limit Federal regulatory power over environmental issues than anyone before or since. That he leased, by his own estimation, "a billion acres" of coastal land for oil development. That he suggested that if problems with environmentalists "cannot be solved in the jury box or at the ballot box, perhaps the cartridge box should be used."

It's OK to be the worst person on the planet, to be a Cabinet officer in the White House while suggesting that a large group of Americans should be murdered for disagreeing with you. It's OK to occupy one of the highest offices in the land despite being almost cartoonishly unqualified and ignorant.

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Using foul language, though, is a bridge too far.

2008 SENATE RACES, PART III: SEATS IN PLAY

Nothing says these have to go in order from safest to least safe, so let's cut in line and do the fun races. There won't be many. As with Rick Santorum in 2006, once again we have an incumbent who is expected to suffer a double-digit loss. Open seats, usually a source of intense competition, offer little excitement this year. Three Republican open seats have essentially been conceded, leaving only a small number of action-packed races.

Screwed Incumbents

  • John Sununu (NH): Historically Republican New England is becoming a dangerous place to be friends with George W. Bush. After Sheldon Whitehouse downed Lincoln Chaffee in 2006 (RI) it was immediately clear that the uninspiring Sununu was in big trouble. NH is a different animal, but if Chaffee's widespread personal popularity could not save him it's hard to imagine Sununu surviving. Factor in his opponent, popular former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, and if there's anything Sununu wants to accomplish in the Senate he might want to do it soon.
  • NM Open (Domenici retirement): When Heather Wilson declined to represent the GOP (just like in 2006) this quickly became a laugher. Domenici's pending ethics censure from the US Attorney scandal sealed his fate, although let's be polite because he's also dying. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall looks unbeatable and the GOP is throwing in the towel. To quote NRSC Chair John Ensign, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win.” Congressman Steve Pearce is on his own.
  • CO Open (Allard retirement): This was a potentially epic contest until the GOP couldn't scrape up a challenger. An eminently contestable seat, I'm amazed that Bob Schaffer (last seen losing the 2002 race for this same seat in the primary) is the best they could do. Mark Udall – cousin of NM candidate Tom – looks like he will cakewalk, although the large conservative base south of Denver could make this competitive. A major failure in candidate recruitment and development for the GOP; begging friggin' John Elway to run doesn't count.
  • VA Open (Warner retirement): John Warner retired and is likely to be replaced by Mark Warner (no relation) with opposition from weak challenger Jim Gilmore. The story of the GOP's decline will have to be entitled What's the Matter with Virginia? The speed with which they went from the only game in town to an afterthought in this state is stunning.

    Toss-ups

  • Ted Stevens (AK): I was really tempted to call this one blue but AK remains a very Republican state. Needless to say, however, the septuple-indicted octogenarian is in serious trouble. The RNC is furious that he has refused to withdraw and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, who would have tested Stevens even sans indictments, now must be considered the favorite. Insert "series of tubes" joke here.
  • Norm Coleman (MN): The gut says Coleman will hold on, but I'm not sure how. Minnesota is so overwhelmingly liberal that Coleman's tenure in the Senate is a minor miracle to begin with. This is a remarkably tight race, literally a coin flip. Franken has money but has not run a good campaign, including some embarrassing revelations about his personal finances. This is the race most likely to go down to the wire. Expect "celebrity" Democrats to come out in force for this one – the Clintons, Biden, Obama, Feingold, Pelosi, and others will become very familiar with the Minneapolis airport. Will the GOP make a similar committment or will its manpower be too tied up in McCain? Does the GOP even have any big guns who Minnesotans wouldn't hate?
  • Gordon Smith (OR): Here's another Senator holding on in a very liberal state. With Obama likely to win Oregon by 20 points, the anonymous and none-too-popular Smith is definitely in trouble. His opponent is middling – State House Speaker Jeff Merkley – but he is running a good campaign based on Smith's record of support for Bush. If the coast (Portland, Eugene) turns out big, Smith's gone.
  • Mary Landrieu (LA): Everyone calls this a toss-up out of guilt for not including one Democrat on the list, so I'll join them. Yes, Landrieu is going to be tested. But the myth of black voters fleeing the state (hence screwing the Democrats) is widespread even though few New Orleans residents actually fled the state permanently. New Orleans, yes. Louisiana, no. Challenger John Kennedy is hard to take seriously; the Democrat switched parties on August 27 and announced his challenge to Landrieu on November 29. Polling provides little value in close races, but most existing polls show Landrieu up 10-15. The state is very red, but right now I see the 12-year veteran hanging on. Her support for offshore drilling (a politically popular stance at home) may have shifted things in her favor.

    So once again I feel compelled to apologize for the seemingly partisan tilt to this analysis, but in this case reality has a distinct liberal bias. Eleven of the mere twelve Democrats up in 2008 are as safe as can be and half of the 20+ GOP seats to defend are in hostile territory or lack quality challengers. When the NRSC essentially gives up on four GOP seats in June (NM, CO, NH, and VA) how in the hell am I supposed to come up with a scenario in which the party does well? The toss-up races are very important for the Republicans, as they represent the dividing line between a bad year and a beatdown of historic proportions. They're basically conceding 54 Democrats, which is very risky. With that as a baseline, they'll need to catch some breaks in the rest of the races or they'll be looking at 60. After the failure of the "firewall" in 2006 they can't actually be overconfident again, can they?

  • NPF: OLYMPIC-SIZED CONSPIRACIES

    I have a theory. Usain Bolt, who became a global celebrity by shattering the 100m sprint record without even really trying, sandbagged his Olympic sprint. He spent the last 20m celebrating rather than running hard, most likely so that his time would be just "slow" enough that he could easily break it in subsequent races. Subsequent races with huge paychecks offered by promoters who think that "Come out and see Usain Bolt break the world record – again!" is the most attention-grabbing marketing line in the sport.
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    From his perspective it makes sense. Why go balls-out if going at 90% is enough to win gold and break a record?
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    Save going 100% for the big payday.

    I LOVE SARAH PALIN

    No, seriously. She is like a gift from heaven. That hateful, corrupt little troll is going to go over like gangbusters with the people who were voting for McCain anyway.

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    And exactly no one else.

    Best I can tell from her speech (usual caveat: read, not watched, as one takes 90 seconds and the other an hour) she was nominated because Ann Coulter was busy.

    Classic right-winger-unconstrained-by-facts moment: Barack Obama wants to take all your money. Ignore reality, that both candidates propose tax plans that cut taxes on everyone making under $200,000. Conservatives have a neat way around inconvenient facts like that – Obama's lying.

    Second-favorite moment: bringing up all of her kids in the first 2 minutes after days of complaining about how the media is prying into the lives of her children.

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    That mean librul media! What kind of people would shine the national spotlight on teenagers for political gain?

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    MOTORCYCLEOLOGY

    On the topic of intellectual races to the bottom:

    I think a very interesting analysis could arise from a comparison of the ways in which non-fiction cable television has changed over the past five to ten years. This struck me when, for reasons now lost to me, I stumbled upon the website of TLC. Let me now summarize the current program roster on The Learning Channel:

    10 Years Younger ("Complete strangers guess our participant's age. Then our glam squad goes to work and takes a decade off the person's look in just 10 days!"), Flip That House, Say Yes To the Dress (bridal shopping), What Not to Wear, LA/Miami Ink (teaching valuable tattoo industry tips), Must Love Kids, Who Are You Wearing?, Makeover Train (was that a Wesley Snipes movie?), Rock the Reception, specials like "160-pound Tumor," shameful freakshowism like Little People Big World, and so on. If this is learning, freebasing cocaine is gourmet cooking.

    But let's focus on their big-ticket shows. There's American Chopper, an incisive look at the tribulations of a facially-hirsute team of motorcycle builders. Through this show I learned that motorcycles go "vroom!" and do not come from eggs. There's Jon & Kate Plus 8, which apparently exists to make the rest of us feel better about our mastery of birth control and avoidance of fertility drugs. And don't forget the original smash hit Trading Spaces, in which people attempt to fill holes in their lives by redecorating rooms. As the "Learning" channel says, "Two room (sic), 48 hours and $1000." Ed agree. That look good.

    TLC's competition has hardly fared better, filling their schedules with shows about explosions, dieting, people falling into mud and/or sewage, morons eating insects because they went into the "wild" without packing food (but with a camera crew), and people catching crabs. Now don't get me wrong. I like Mythbusters. It's fun. I'll watch some Deadliest Catch. But I also miss the kind of programming that they used to provide in spades. I want hour-long specials about the history of styrofoam. I want boring, lightly-narrated, grainy color footage of things on conveyor belts. I want detailed retellings (with bad re-enactments) of obscure historical events that did not involve muskets, swords, or warfare. I want to learn things that will only be of use on Jeopardy! or first-dates with unreasonably intelligent folklorists.

    I do not want to learn any more about historical armed conflicts. You have taught us enough about WWII, Vietnam, Desert Storm, and military toys in general to last several lifetimes. I know the thickness of the armor on every conceivable type of Cold War-era tank. I know what it looks like when precision munitions hit something and then explode. I know all of Hitler's personal habits, every person he ever spoke to, and what he ate for breakfast the day he died. I do not want to know any of this. It has stuck through simple repetition, a brute-force attack by your networks. Think of your programming as the camera-guided bomb and my brain as the Iraqi bunker.

    In short, please rededicate yourself to bland, informative programming about topics of minimal appeal to audiences. This was your bread-and-butter for years and I miss it. The invisible hand of the free market may have erred when it led you astray to programming with commercial appeal. This does not educate us. It may entertain us (although looking at TLC's roster again I am skeptical) but that is not your raison d'etre. Your switch to makeover- and chopper-based shows makes economic sense, but look at it this way: people who like makeovers and shopping already have 997 channels to call their own.

    PALINDROMES

    In the past 5 days, among media, things I have seen on the interweb, and people with whom I have spoken, Sarah Palin has been compared to Theodore Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Ronald Reagan, Martin Luther King, Hillary Clinton, Margaret Thatcher, and Lyndon Johnson. She is, in short, the most amazing, incredible human being in the history of people. Tenured researchers at the University of Awesome have finally solved their field's historically unsolvable equation. The answer is Sarah Palin.

    Not that the reaction has been hyperbolic or anything.

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    I'm sure these comparisons, lain upon someone her new acolytes never heard of five days ago, are well-grounded in reality. If anything they may not be going far enough.

    She also reminds me of Ghandi, Abraham Lincoln, Sir Edmund Hillary, and legendary knuckleballer Phil Niekro. She runs faster than Usain Bolt. She can deadlift a 1974 Ford Ranchero. She can cure pleurisy with her touch. She appears on tortillas in El Salvador. She can make dinner with one hand while writing in Hittite cunieform with the other.

    She declined to break the NFL single-game record for safeties out of respect for Fred Dryer.

    She craps platinum ingots. Her penmanship has been described as unpretentious and legible.

    She is not an American, she is America.

    2008 SENATE RACES, PART 2 – UNCOMPETITIVE

    (note: the "senate" tag at the bottom of the post can take you to other parts of this discussion)

    While I discussed the odds stacked against the GOP in the first post, the good news is that many of their incumbents are safe. Unfortunately, the Democratic percentage of safe seats is far greater. Before we move on to the exciting races, let's cover the obligatory ones.

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    These races are not considered competitive in any reasonable scenario. The unreasonable does happen. But these seats are safe in the absence of a major, game-changing blunder on the part of the incumbent. I'm not talking about answering some question wrong at a press conference – I mean calling someone "Macaca" or getting indicted. These candidates, some of whom have little more than token challengers, need only play decent defense to get re-elected.
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    Safe Republicans (12)

  • Idaho – Open: Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has a cakewalk to fill Larry Craig's deeply closeted shoes.
  • Lamar Alexander (TN): Tennessee is not a total wasteland for the Democrats, but Bob Tuke is not a quality challenger and Lamar is a local institution.
  • Mike Enzi and John Barrasso (WY): Yawn.
  • Saxby Chambliss (GA): This disgusting excuse for a human being is likely to be tested by Vietnam vet Jim Martin, but he will return to Washington nonetheless.
  • Thad Cochran (MS): To call his opposition 'token' would be hyperbolic.
  • Roger Wicker (MS): I don't want to say this is competitive, but Ronnie Musgrove (Governor, 2000-2004) is the closest thing the MS Democrats have to a legit statewide threat. Keep an eye on this one. It could move.
  • John Cornyn (TX): State Rep. Rick Noriega poses little threat to an otherwise shaky Republican.
  • Jeff Sessions (AL): The former Democrat remains safe in a state whose internal politics remain Democratic.
  • Pat Roberts (KS): War veteran/Congressman Jim Slattery is a strong challenger fighting a losing battle.
  • Jim Inhofe (OK): The dumbest man in the Senate will return for six more years of humiliating himself on the world stage.
  • Lindsey Graham (SC): Among the safest of all GOP states.

    Safe Democrats (11)

  • Mark Pryor (AR): The only candidate who literally has no challenger – in a state GWB won twice.
  • Max Baucus (MT): Opposed by an 85 year-old joke candidate.
  • Jack Reed (RI): Opposed by a casino pit boss named Bob Tingle whose website was designed by a 9 year-old.
  • Jay Rockefeller (WV): The latest generation of the political royalty in the Mountaineer state.
  • John Kerry (MA): Jerome Corsi said he would challenge Kerry but, to no one's surprised, pussied out. Pussy.
  • Dick Durbin (IL): Where's Alan Keyes when you need him?
  • Joe Biden (DE): Some GOP direct mail consultant threw her name on the ballot when no one else wanted any part of this kamikaze run.
  • Tom Harkin (IA): Wealthy businessman Chris Reed could stress Harkin, but he is unlikely to prevail.
  • Carl Levin (MI): It's cute how the GOP insists Michigan is competitive and then runs a guy named Jack Hoogendyk against Levin.
  • Tim Johnson (SD): Inexplicably safe. He is getting a bump from something like a sympathy vote after his life-threatening aneurysm. Weak challenger.
  • Frank Lautenberg (NJ): I got into trouble by giving the GOP some credit in this state in 2006, but 84 year-old Lautenberg may be pressed by Dick Zimmer. Of the safe Democratic seats, this is one that could move.
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    While the safe Republicans are very safe, the sheer awfulness of some of the GOP challengers to safe Democrats is kind of awesome. Senile? Non-existent? Make $12/hr in a casino? Want your name on the ballot to impress your friends? Step right up!

  • CRYSTAL BALLS

    I don't like predicting things about politics, because in most cases politics are unpredictable. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or wildly overconfident.
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    When I do make predictions, I'm very comfortable admitting when I missed the mark.

    I knew who Sarah Palin was, but not in a million years did I consider her a credible VP pick.
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    The few (very few) media outlets that predicted her selection in advance (or even identified her as a serious option) deserve credit, including Jack Kelly at RCP. I recall reading one or two other articles that nailed it, but unfortunately I can't recall them to give credit where it is clearly due.
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