BREAKING: SPECTER A DEMOCRAT

Straight from the horse's mouth on Specter2010.com:

Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats.
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I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans…I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary.

Self-preservation at its finest.

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My knee-jerk reaction is that he will cakewalk through 2010 as a Democrat. More on this soon.

APOSTASY, TORTOISE AND HARE STYLE

In consuming a lot of conservative media, mostly for the purpose of mocking it, I've noticed some outliers and an unmistakable recent trend.

Little Green Footballs, founded and primarily authored by Charles Johnson, is routinely lumped in with the hysterical wing of the right along with the likes of Malkin, Free Republic, Instarube, and so on. The funny thing is that I find LGF entirely reasonable, well-written, and intelligent – as long as they're not talking about Israel. On the Arab-Israeli conflict or "Islamic extremism" they are borderline fascists. Other than that issue, Mr. Johnson is alarmingly…normal. Sadly, No aptly describes Johnson as a solid fellow driven immediately and overwhelmingly insane by 9/11. But honestly, bring up any other topic and he does a startling impression of a sane, normal person with decent writing skills.

A few other folks like self-identified traditional conservative Andrew Sullivan or mushy centrist (media speak for conservative) Marc Ambinder are similarly readable. This is a select group, the closest thing that the right has to intelligent commentary. They have something else in common as well: they appear to be going through a slow, public disillusionment with the conservative movement and the GOP.

This is most obvious with Johnson and LGF.

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Being a smart fellow, he has occasionally parted company with some of the right's nonsense. For example he now routinely slags Glenn Beck as an embarrassment to the movement. Throughout the election was loudly critical of anti-Obama conspiracy theorists (i.e., the birth certificate dipshittery). He has warned the right about allying with European "nationalist" organizations in the War against Islamic Immigrants because of said groups' frequent neo-Nazi ties. Predictably, former wingnut allies like the certifiably-insane Pam Atlas (check out her self-photo) have branded him an apostate and turned on him with a vengance he has not previously experienced. Eventually Johnson decided to label Ms. Atlas a "hateblogger" and "shrieking lunatic" after she accused him of neo-Nazi ties.

This wingnut civil war/pissing contest may be of little interest to non-bloggers but it speaks to a much larger issue. Johnson, like many conservatives, is in the midst of a pitched battle with his conscience. His ideological biases and his intellect are crossing lightsabers. The result is a man who is very publicly coming to grips with the truth about his right-wing colleagues, who is forced to admit to his audience of millions, "Holy crap.
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The people who make up this movement are totally fucking bonkers."

You can see the same in Andrew Sullivan pointing out the idiocy of Glenn Reynolds and the Teabagging "movement" or Marc Ambinder saying, "My Republican friends keep asking me when I'll take the GOP seriously again and why I've stopped writing about ticky-tak political gamesmanship and GOP consultant tricks. When they're a serious party with serious ideas, then we can talk." Come toward the light, boys.

These examples should not be disregarded when attempting to understand why a historically low 21% of people are willing to admit to being a Republican these days. Everyone with half a brain has turned his or her back on the party in embarrassment. I assume you all have Republican friends and relatives. How many of them are proud to admit that affiliation these days? For the irreducibles, the 20% who say that W was our greatest President, the pride remains. But how can the average, educated conservative – bankers, cops, teachers, medical professionals, engineers, etc. – watch Glenn Beck's lunatic ranting and be anything but mortified? Now that the party is leaderless and wingnut radio hosts have stepped in to fill the void, the party's ability to attract anyone above the grade of "mouthbreather" is severely limited.

There are a lot of smart people in this country and they do not share a single political viewpoint.

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People disagree. Always have, always will. But smart people, by virtue of being smart, are embarrassed by the kind of demagoguery and stupidity that the right uses to keep the rubes frothing at the mouth and ready to cast a vote against The Homos. Many of us realized this a long time ago – in 1964 for the older folks, or 1980 for the Gen-Xers, or 2002 for the youngest voters – but a lot of die-hard conservatives are playing the part of the tortoise. They don't want to admit it, but with every day, every idiotic best-selling book, every talk radio segment, and every cheap piece of grandstanding by the few Republicans in visible public offices, the truth becomes just a little bit harder to ignore.

WEEKEND BONUS: NO-COLLAR COMEDY TOUR

This premise is flawed.

Glenn Beck is bringing his summer comedy stage tour to movie theaters nationwideso that no matter where you live, you can join!

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Bring your family and take a trip to your local movie theater this summer (complete with comfy seats and air conditioning) to examine common sense, which is no longer common!

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Glenn spares no one, including politicians and celebrities, as he takes a look at the state of our culture and the frightening lack of common sense, especially in Washington. Explore the comedy behind the chaos that has become America. Hear the tales and revisit the wisdom that our grandfathers and forefathers relied on to build America.

I tried very hard to think of something with less potential to be funny.

All I could think of was the Holocaust.

I feel really, really bad for all the young people whose ignorant cracker parents are going to drag them to this and force them to think it's funny – and educational!

Note that Glenn intends to break new ground comedically by refusing to spare "politicians and celebrities" from his rapier wit.

NPF: BREAKING AWAY

One of the unique challenges to teaching at Indiana University is accomodating the annual ritual of binge drinking and disregard for public urination laws that accompanies the "Little 500" bike race, the event immortalized in the film Breaking Away. It combines everything an IU undergraduate holds dear: alcohol poisoning, dressing identically to one's bros/sisters at the frat/sorority, and skipping class. I suppose there is some sort of bike race as well, but that clearly is a tertiary concern.

Because the job of trying to motivate undergraduates through a sixteen week semester is not difficult enough, this event is jammed into the Spring semester one week before finals. To say that all academic activity on campus grinds to a halt for this spectacle is an understatement. In its place is all manner of generalized stupidity just as a normal teacher might be expecting to prepare his or her class for the final exam or set a due date for semester research papers. I mean, why go to class when you can get ballz drunk on Pucker at 9:00 AM? I haven't a good answer for that either, so don't feel bad.

Benefits to the non-undergraduate population of what is modestly advertised as "The World's Greatest College Weekend" include ankle-deep vomit on Jordan Avenue, the inability to get anywhere near campus, and visits from some of the biggest names in entertainment (in the eyes of an 18 year-old, I suppose). I don't want to brag about my town, but if you want to see Soulja Boy and Young Jeezy in rapid succession, this is the place to be right now.

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"This is how badly I want to win the Indiana Primary.
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Also, see Young Jeezy."

I must be getting old. I certainly sound like an old man brandishing a rake at kids who encroach upon his lawn. Regardless, there is clearly an age at which this type of spectacle – seven consecutive days of dawn-to-dusk drunkenness – loses its appeal. I know that some adults partake of this type of thing (i.e., Mardi Gras) but I doubt they can handle it physically all day, every day for a full week.
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The body just can't function on Keystone Light and Taco Bell at 7:30 in the morning in the harsh glare of adulthood.
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We need occasional sleep. We need a decent meal at semi-regular intervals. And unfortunately we have things to do. In my case that "thing" is trying to hold the attention of young people and perhaps even teach them something.
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If I sound crochety it results from the fact that the average IU student is not known for his studiousness at any point during the year; institutionalizing a week right before finals during which the campus-wide interest in academics drops to zero feels like fate, nature, and the Higher Power giving us the finger. The University, for its part, is an enabler, all but winking and telling its vast herd of East Coast kids who couldn't get into Penn State "It's OK, we know what you came here for."

Cue loud barfing backed by the righteous, original beats of Soulja Boy.

WHAT COULD GO WRONG?

Imagine a Teabagging rally, only scarier and more heavily armed. You might have something like the "Million Militiaman March." You'd also have the worst idea since Lincoln decided he wanted to see Our American Cousin. On a scale of one to ten, this is going to go reeeeeeeeeally well.

(Sorry for the shorty; regular full-size posts will return later today.
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)

BILL MURCHISON GETS THE FJM TREATMENT

The best part about being a Republican is that the right-wing media will defend anything. I mean, anything. There is nothing a Republican officeholder can say or do that is stupid, illegal, or offensive enough that an army of hacks won't take to their syndicated columns and talk radio mics to excuse it. This is why you are about to read a nugget of wisdom entitled "Was Rick Perry Just Kidding?" by a fifth-rate columnist whose own mother has never heard of him. If you haven't time to read the whole thing, here is the quick version of what happens in the following paragraphs: Bill Murchison lures Sound Logic and Good Argument into his dank, windowless van and proceeds to finger them.

Sneer, sneer, boo, hiss — and oh, boy!

A piece of prose that begins thusly can only be authored by A) Dr. Seuss or B) a man with a vast number of competing voices in his head. I don't want to give the rest of the column away, but Dr. Seuss died in 1991.

Did the "progressives" ever pour it on my governor, Rick Perry of Texas, for his playful reference at a Tea Party event to "secession" as an option possibly forming in the minds of sensible Texans.

Ah. It was "playful." All expectations that our public officials will not say things that are treasonous or completely retarded go out the window if spoken playfully. In his next column, Bill Murchison will go through airport security making jokes about the bombs in his luggage and wriggle out of legal trouble with a particularly wacky blazer and a spinning bowtie.

Why would we be thinking about such?

ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US.

Because of "progressive" depredations in Washington, D.C., the governor said, if not in so many words.

Bill is a contrarian. Since good writing involves communicating an idea using the smallest possible number of carefully chosen words, Bill goes for quantity and incoherence. He also sits angrily in his seat while everyone else in the stadium is doing the wave.

The establishment harrumphed and gagged and generally went red. Gail Collins of the New York Times: "[H]ave you noticed how places that pride themselves on being superpatriotic seem to have the most people who want to abandon the country entirely and set up shop on their own?"

That sounds like an entirely reasonable question. The kind a normal person would ask.

Come on, lady, back off a little. No one's going anywhere — as well you certainly know.

"As well you certainly know?" Either this was written in Urdu and translated back into English with a free online translator or Bill puts each word he wants to use on a notecard, scatters them to the afternoon breeze, and lets fate arrange them into sentences.

Nobody's called for a secession convention. I looked up and down the street this morning; not a single effigy of Nancy Pelosi dangled from the live oaks. Driving to the office, I heard no suggestion that we hang Harry Reid, Chris Dodd, or, preferably, both to a sour apple tree.

See? No one's violently trying to secede yet. They're just talking about it, which is always harmless and never progresses to the kind of behavior cited here.

No matter. Sigh.

Do you have any idea how big of a hack one must be as a writer to actually write "Sigh" to communicate that emotion? If your writing is so bad that you can't convey a simple emotion without saying "I AM EXASPERATED RIGHT NOW" then maybe writing isn't for you.

The progressives have the bit between their teeth and seem bent on the usual pretense that these Texans are a bunch of ingrates whom we shouldn't trust as far as we can throw a grand piano.
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Ingrates? No, Bill. We think you're borderline-illiterate yahoos in cowboy hats and Chevy Suburbans who say "y'all" a lot thanks in part to some of the worst public schooling north of El Salvador.

Well, you know what? It's too much trouble seceding, even if we could.

This is perhaps the least reassuring reassurance I have ever seen, rivalled only by Oswald telling the security guard "I just want a better view of the parade route so I can take pictures."

And, pace the governor, we can't.

Foil, runs nubuck gracefully. Pong lapdance railroad kidneys. Towel? Gap dash an eskimo!!

Rather than the secessionary right he alleged we brought with us into the Union, we brought the right — undoubted, but similarly impractical — to divide into five states.
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We'll have to stick around a bit longer.

This reminds me of that time I read the complete set of Time-Life Home Repair and Improvement books on peyote.

That shouldn't deprive us of the right to remind fellow Americans of some practices and virtues our land could do well to renew.

Oh, good. Please do lecture us so that we may become more like Lubbock and Beaumont. When I worry about our Practices and Virtues here in the midwest I often think, "You know how we oughta do things?
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Like they do things in Corpus Christi."

A key one is regard for the inherent right of local people, even under a federal union, to defend and oversee their own modes of life.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOO STATES' RIGHTS!!!!!1!1!!!oneone!!!! A noble concept always used to defend other noble concepts. OMG let's have another nullification crisis!!

In other words — golly gee! — Texans might not want exactly the same things Californians want. They might wish lower taxes and less regulation by government. Their approaches to education and health care and energy might differ as well. So also the ways they deal with simple matters like eating: more sirloins in Texas, more tofu on the Left Coast.

Let's look at the rankings.

Life expectancy by state: #10. California, #30. Texas
Adult obesity by state: #10 Texas, #30 California
Heart disease deaths per 100,000: Texas 220, California 191

Nice.

Alas, the Obama regime, as we may decide to start calling it one of these days, has other notions.

"One of these days" = January 2009

It appears to cherish uniformity, the close alignment of ideals and methods: everybody doing the same thing the same way for the same reasons.

Well, technically it believes, as most of us left-leaning yankees do, in trying to bring our slow southern cousins up to first-world standards, perhaps by teaching science instead of the Bible and working on getting those teen pregnancy rates below Nigeria's. I disagree, but the bleeding hearts believe they can fix you. Maybe make you less of an embarrassment. Me, I'm Alec Baldwin in Glengarry Glen Ross. I'm here on a mission of mercy. I came here because Mitch and Murray asked me for a favor. I said, "If you want a favor, take my advice and fire their asses, because a loser is a loser."

You think I'm fuckin' with you, Bill? I am not fuckin' with you.

The Obamanistas may want uniform rules regarding the cars and trucks we drive and the energy those vehicles consume.

Yep. Are we supposed to be ashamed of that? This is not unlike saying "Can you believe these nanny state liberals who want me to stop committing so many rapes?!?" I can live with having judged you on this point.

They want, it seems, national education standards — a goal furthered, as one hates to acknowledge, by a former Texas governor, George W. Bush via the No Child Left Behind Act.

Yep. And here's the important part, so stay with me: this time the national education (sic) standards won't be retarded. Semantics, semantics.

We may even wind up with national standards for humor. A joke, son, ain't a joke no more, and that's the truth.

This is the most forced transition to a slippery slope argument – and not even a good bad argument at that – in the history of whatever language Bill Murchison speaks.

The governor of Texas no more demanded secession from the Union than he called for a Lone Star Beer to be brought him.

Rick Perry, April 15, as the crowd chanted "Secede! Secede! Secede!": "There's a lot of different scenarios. We've got a great union. There's absolutely no reason to dissolve it. But if Washington continues to thumb their nose at the American people, you know, who knows what might come out of that."

He raised an eyebrow; he winked. Never mind. A stalwart "progressive" trying to show up conservatives is ever alert to serendipitous events and occasions.

Here's an idea, Bill. Threaten to kill an elected official and give the jury the old "But I winked!" excuse. Write me a letter on your prison stationery letting me know how it worked out for you.

So maybe he shouldn't have said it. That's from one perspective. Here's another: A Union of the sort our wise and virtuous founders thought they were creating is as loose and flexible as a Union can realistically be made; accommodative of divergent viewpoints, and all the stronger for it, all the more united, too.

You know what kinds of viewpoints they didn't accomodate? Secession. That has a way of making us weaker and more divided, not quite stronger and more united.

The Union we seem to see dead ahead through the windshield, with the people of 50 different states all cuffed together in mutual subservience, isn't what the founders had in mind. Good for Rick Perry on that score: He raised a useful subject, even if to his own detriment. Let's enjoy. Such a moment may not come again for a long, long time.

Flawless, Bill. Just flawless. Undermining your own argument, stringing together words into incoherent non-sentences, coming to no conclusion, and fizzling out because you couldn't think of a way to end it – brilliant. Here's the rub. If you consider our current situation "mutual subservience" then your level of anger is appropriate, like if I referred to you as "Child pornographer and white supremacist Bill Murchison." That would justify some pretty extreme anger directed at you. And since none of that is true, you'd be pretty baffled by the response. Yet that's exactly what you're doing here, cubby. Those cuffs and that forced subservience aren't real. They exist only in your head. If the rest of us lived in your head then this piece and Rick Perry's bloviating would ring true and sound to a downtrodden nation like a call to action.

But we live on Earth and you sound like an idiot.

THE NUMBERS RACKET

Last week I had my first professional success in the world of political science, as one of the better-known academic journals accepted one of my submissions for publication. It deals with projections of population change in the 2010 and 2020 Censuses (yes, "censes" is also acceptable) and what that will mean for Congressional apportionment and the Electoral College. I've accumulated more experience with and knowledge about the Census and American population dynamics than the average Joe in political science. Allow me to share what I've learned: the Census is seriously fucked up. And what do you know, most of the existing flaws benefit the conservatives who are screaming like tea kettles about the insidious Obama Census plans.

The right is well into their predictable pant-shitting hysterics about the President's decision to have the director of Census 2010 reporting directly to the White House. How this is appreciably different than having him report to the Commerce Secretary, a person hand-picked by and reporting directly to the President, is unclear. How this is appreciably different from the four years that the Congressional GOP spent trying to pass legislation in the 1990s to monkey with Census 2000 is unclear. It's not like the potential for political manipulation isn't real – the Census is laden with latent flaws that benefit the GOP.

Shocking, I know.

The root problem is that the traditional image of the Census-taker going door-to-door and taking a head count of each American became a logistical impossibility more than a century ago. That may have worked in 1790 but it goes without saying that it is not feasible in modern America. Thus the Census is forever dealing with the problem of how to count people who can't physically be counted. The GOP has a simple answer: don't. As the undercounting is vastly more prevalent in densely-packed urban areas, statistical adjustments to account for the uncounted are called a sinister Democrat ploy.

While "sampling" – projecting a large population based on a small sample – is not permitted, the Census does use a statistical technique called hot deck imputation to fill in missing data points. After an address has not returned the Census form and after the Census-takers have made multiple visits to the address without contact, the Bureau will impute the data based on neighborhood characteristics. In other words, they can't extrapolate but they can fill in a few blanks. The constitutionality of this technique was affirmed by the Supreme Court in Utah v Evans (2002). Imputation has little partisan impact (the awarding of the final Census 2000 Congressional seat to North Carolina instead of Utah was not only a wash for the GOP but a fluke – it could have been almost any two states) but sampling, which would produce a more complete population count, does. Therefore the inverse is also true – not sampling has a partisan impact that hurts Democrats.

The right are also in hysterics about Obama's devious plan to "count every illegal alien" as Skeletor Michelle Malkin shrieks. Here's Dirty Secret #1 about the Census: they've always counted illegal and legal immigrants. The Census is a count of the number of people in a box. Distinctions are not made between voter and non-voter, adult and child, citizen and non-citizen. The bile-spewing reaction this fact produces on the right is exactly as you would expect, but…OK, Michelle. Who do you think is benefitting from this? Let's stop counting non-citizens and see what happens to the population counts in Texas, Arizona, Florida, and across the plains (where immigrant labor in agriculture, meatpacking, and manufacturing subsidizes the entire economy). While California would also take a hit, overall, "Red America" is the beneficiary of this little-reported fact.

And here comes the best part: prisons. The GOP never has a problem with the ridiculous way the Census counts prisons. Throughout the country we stick our giant carceral warehouses in rural (read: economically desperate, willing to do anything to get state cash flowing through the streets of Podunk) communities who subsequently see their populations increase by five or ten thousand. These new "residents" have no political rights, of course, but the human chattel comes in handy when it's time to draw legislative district boundaries! What, like Susanville, California would be important without its four CDC facilities? Right.

The Census procedures are well on their way to becoming the next big thing in the uniquely American art of fucking up what should be very simple: counting stuff. What pregnant chads and Diebold EVMs did for the past decade the Census will do for the next several years. Those extra Congressional seats, Electoral Votes, and Federal dollars are vitally important and partisans are willing to fight for them in the streets, in Congress, and in court. Any level of political manipulation in the Census process is undesirable, but as ultraconservatives ramp up their poorly-informed jihad against liberal scheming it is worth remembering that the status quo is absolutely riddled with holes and – coincidentally, I'm sure – tilts the process in favor of the Welfare Queen States of red America.

R.I.P. TO BOTH

First, I am done with Teabaggers. They stopped being interesting six weeks ago and I'm amazed my stamina held out this long.

Second, Little did not wake up this morning.
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Brief services were held in the garden.

Her favorite activity was escaping from her cage to join Liz in bed; now she has escaped from the biggest cage of all.

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Rest in peace, friend.

TUNNELING TO CHINA

I can't imagine a lazier blog post for someone left of center than "Fox News is a joke," a statement which immediately redlines the nearest No Shit meter. As hard as it may be to conceive, though, in the past two weeks the network has jumped a new and bigger shark. To watch their "coverage" of the teabagging non-movement is to watch a network that no longer puts up the slightest pretense of being a news organization and fully embraces its role as a free 24-hour infomercial for mobilizing the vast herd of idiots who stare at it unquestioningly throughout the evening hours.

"But Ed," you say, "where have you been? This has been the case for 13 years." No. This is different. It hasn't been like this before. Having already hit rock bottom years ago, the network now appears to be tunneling through the Earth at a frightening pace.

Teabagging organizers seem extraordinarily proud of their alleged 200,000 person turnout on April 15. Leaving aside the fact that the figure is vastly inflated, that number isn't terribly impressive given the two weeks of round-the-clock fawning coverage and pleas for turnout on the network of record among bovine Americans. Am I overstating it? Media Matters has a massive list of videos, broadcast screenshots, quotes, and details on the network's decision to aggressively promote the events. While the network feebly attempted to hide behind a "coverage isn't promotion" defense, it is undermined considerably by the persistent liberal bias of reality:

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Every on-air personality sprinted out from behind the news desk to "cover" these "events." FoxNews.com contained a complete list of the dates, times, locations, and websites of the protests. They gave copious airtime to bobbleheaded promoters like Malkin and Instarube but also to "grassroots" organizers like this shaved ape who organized the Houston bagging.

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They interviewed the tool who wrote the "Tea Party Anthem" in his spare time between gigs behind the local bus station. But as bad as the promotional campaign was – and Media Matters effectively documents the whole thing – it pales in comparison to the live coverage on the 15th.

Watch Neil Cavuto, who spent the day at the Sacramento teabagging, make up an attendance figure when he thought his mic was off and then triple it on the air. Watch a Fox News "reporter" (apparently on loan from local frat house) ask viewers, "(W)hen are we going to wake up and start fighting the fascism that seems to be permeating this country?"

When all was said and done, the total amount of free marketing and promotion provided to the far right think tanks who created this non-event was staggering: 23 individual segments and 73 on-air promos in just eight days. What would that have cost at the going advertising rates? Other networks responded by all but ignoring the protests except to mock them, as this CNN reporter did on the 15th. This resulted in the predictable paranoid hysterics about media bias. What no one cares to explain, of course, is what about this was worth covering, what the objective was, and what was accomplished. The answers are nothing, nothing, and nothing, respectively.

While Murdoch media have always been shameless mouthpieces for the right interrupted only by ass-kissing editorials, I'm not sure that American audiences have ever seen a news network resort to infomercial-style hard selling for weeks on end to promote a specific event – an event that Fox sponsored. We can safely imagine that were the shoe on the other foot and CNN anchors were broadcasting live from "CNN Presents: Rallies to Support President Obama," Beck et al would be gushing blood from every orifice in an effort to expel as much biblical rage as possible before their black little hearts exploded from the strain.