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Like a fifteen inning World Series game, the 2008 Senate elections are bound to be memorable by the fact that they continue ten weeks after Election Day. The Merkley/Smith results from Oregon took several days to filter in and determine a victor, while in Alaska the apparent Election Night victory of Ted Stevens turned into a 3% defeat after a recount and the tally of late absentee ballots. Saxby Chambliss groped his 12 year-old niece's breasts in a commercial aired for his early December runoff rematch with Jim Martin, with Sexy Saxby ultimately prevailing. But the aforementioned storylines, which would constitute a historically significant amount of post-election activity on their own, are the tip of the iceberg. The new Senate has been sworn in and the session has begun yet races remain undecided.

First, the presidential election results and subsequent appointments by the President-Elect put a few additional seats up in the air. One of them turned out to be, um, pretty interesting. Others were more mundane. In Colorado, where Ken Salazar stepped down to accept the Interior post in Obama's cabinet, Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter shocked everyone (including Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet) by appointing Denver Schools Superintendent Michael Bennet as his replacement. While this move will have little impact on the current Senate it will make future elections more interesting. Bennet must be considered a weak incumbent and his seat will represent a realistic opportunity for the GOP to make a pickup if they can find a decent candidate.

Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner filled the VP-elect's vacant seat with long-time Biden aide Ted Kaufman in a particularly ham-fisted attempt to set the table for Biden's Iraq War veteran son Beau to run in 2010. Kaufman has already announced his retirement at the end of his mini-term, proving that subtlety is rarer and more precious than moon rocks in Delaware. As the odds of the GOP winning a Senate race in that state are longer than those of Transporter 3 at this year's Oscars, the machinations of Delaware politics matter little in terms of the ultimate outcome.

Obama's seat, well, that's another story. Despite a petition signed by every Democrat in the Senate urging Blagojevich to resign and under no circumstances to appoint a replacement, Hot Rod decided to appoint relatively boring career party hack Roland Burris as a parting "fuck you" to Illinois and the nation. Here's the problem: according to the Illinois Constitution, Burris' appointment is entirely legitimate. Like most states, the Constitution grants the Governor all appointment powers, meaning that various calls for a special election to fill the seat are irrelevant. The State Legislature can't just decide to call for such an election; the Constitution would have to be amended. Secretary of State White has refused to certify the appointment but is similarly bound by the Constitution to do his job. To give the SoS discretion on such a matter would grant him veto power over the Governor, hence the state Supreme Court will eventually order White to rubber-stamp Burris. As they do on every issue Senate Democrats are already caving, recognizing that once the formality of White's signature is obtained Burris has been legally appointed to the letter of the law.

Who are the assholes here? The Illinois General Assembly. They dragged their feet on impeaching Hot Rod, either out of stupidity or the pitifully misguided belief that the man has enough integrity to resign in the face of certain doom. They left him in Springfield and he continued to exercise his authority, essentially calling everyone's bluff. As much as Obama and the Senate Democrats would like to be rid of Burris and his connection to the corrupt Governor forever, the Illinois Supreme Court's impending decision will leave the Senate with no legal basis for refusing to seat him. Shame on Burris for not having the integrity to turn down Hot Rod's offer like so many other Illinois politicians did.

Last but not least we have Coleman-Franken, and we're going to have Coleman-Franken for quite some time. On January 5th the state canvassing board certified Franken as the winner by an improbably slim 225 vote margin. However, John Cornyn of Texas threatened a GOP filibuster of any effort to seat Franken before the Secretary of State certifies official results. I have to agree with him. We, including Franken, can afford to wait until the outcome of the race is indisputably resolved. It's incumbent upon the Minnesota state government to move as quickly as possible to make that happen. Unfortunately Coleman filed a lawsuit on January 6th, meaning that this will ultimately be resolved in court…and not terribly swiftly either. The first hearings are set for January 26. Christ.

Yeah, it looks like the book on the 2008 Senate elections will not be closed for at least a few more weeks. I'm simultaneously amused and irritated by the prospect. I hope the authors of the 2,400 write-in votes in Minnesota (not to mention the 8,900 bedwetters who cast a vote for "Constitution Party" candidate and Richfield cop James Niemackl) are happy with their decisions.

Last week's Senate 2010 preview is already in need of an update. Mel Martinez is abandoning ship after just one term. You may recall that he just narrowly beat Betty Castor in 2004, a year in which the GOP had a decided upper hand. Now he's another Bush victim, and he took some headshots at the Rove Party on his way out the door.

Martinez was in big trouble anyway, and as an open seat the Democratic challenger (probably Wexler) is the clear favorite. And I bet Jeb runs.

As proof that things will get worse before they get better on the right, let's take a too-early but not-really-too-early look at the 2010 Senate races. Yes, believe it or not, in 10 to 12 months the campaigns will become active and the races will begin to take shape.

There will be 35 races – Class III plus special elections for the Obama/Biden seats. That number could increase if a Senator from another class dies and requires a special election in 2010 to replace him or her. It could happen. Byrd is 91. Inouye, Akaka, and Lautenberg will all be 86. All four are Democrats. The GOP would have a good shot at replacing the elderly West Virginian with a Republican should Byrd give up the ghost.

Some Class III retirements have been announced or are expected. Sam Brownback (KS) is retiring. Ted Kennedy, Arlen Specter, and Jim Bunning will be 78, 80, and 80 in 2010. All are in poor health. One or all may opt to retire. Inouye will be 86. Yikes.

Of the 35 races, 19 are GOP-held compared to 16 currently occupied by Democrats. Again the numbers put the GOP in an uphill battle. Many of the 16 Democrats will be in cakewalk races – Leahy (who was in The Dark Knight. No, really.), Schumer, Lincoln, Mikulski, Reid, Bayh, Feingold – or in open races in states like IL, DE, or MA. Not a lot of vulnerable Democrats ready to be conquered.

The potential GOP pickups are few. Ken Salazar (CO) is beatable in theory, but the GOP has had a hell of a time conjuring up decent challengers (as evidenced by the recent Udall-Schaeffer beatdown) and the state took a turn for the blue in 2008. Chris Dodd (CT) was seriously affected by his Countrywide/Freddie scandal and could be vulnerable if challenged by Republican Governor Jodi Rell. I question whether she would surrender the security of the Governor's mansion to challenge a nationally-recognized incumbent Democrat in this climate. If she does, this will immediately be among the most hotly contested races. Otherwise, Dodd cruises. Barbara Boxer (CA) could face term-limited Governor Schwarzenegger. If nothing else, the race would be entertaining. Is he a legitimate threat or a sideshow?

The GOP also has some safe seats, including Shelby (AL), Bennett (UT), and Crapo (ID). But there is a whole mess of seats they are going to have trouble defending. Briefly:

Joe Biden will be replaced by his longtime Chief-of-Staff Ted Kaufman. Net effect: absolutely none. Kaufman curiously noted that he's "OK with retiring in two years" which will do little to calm talk of Biden's Iraq veteran son replacing him in 2010.

Obama's replacement will come down to Jan Schakowsky, Luis Gutierrez, or Danny Davis, three House veterans who will blow away whatever dipshit the GOP finds to oppose them. Insert your own "a Jew, a Latino, and a black guy walk into the governor's office" joke here.

Coleman-Franken drags on and will drag itself right into court sooner or later. Bank on it.

Let me quote myself on October 13 of this year, discussing the Senate races in the home stretch:

If the big victory they can take away from this election is "We have enough Senators to threaten a filibuster!" then the GOP has truly suffered a beating of historic proportions.

The battle to get to 58 will be a pretty easy one but there will be rapidly diminishing returns beyond that point. Fighting their way to 60 will require an improbable victory and a few more years of kissing Joe Lieberman’s ass, bending to his every whim.

And here we are, the Democrats hitting 58 Senate seats with two clusterfucks yet to be resolved. The odds of hitting sixty are not great; in fact, let us go ahead and assume that the GOP wins either the Franken-Coleman recount showdown or the Martin-Chambliss runoff. At this point I would like to cue streamers, fireworks, and celebratory 80s rock anthems. Congratulations guys, you did it! That is the big victory for the year: holding on to 41 Senate seats. G-O-P! G-O-P! G-O-P!

I think all of us who were thrilled by the outcome of this election are mindful of hubris. We know how quickly tables can turn in American politics. But looking at this election in isolation, I struggle to find the silver lining for the GOP.

The Fox News crowd were prepared on Election Day to give McCain a big "exceeding expectations" win. That is, if McCain avoided losing in a complete rout they could note that, given all of Obama's advantages, McCain did far better than he should have. Alas, the Electoral College was lopsided. McCain lost every major swing state, including his Hail Mary state of Pennsylvania. Obama's victory was big enough that without CA and NY he still would have won. Ouch. No Kerry 2004 "Well, it should have been a Bush blowout but we made it close with a terrible candidate, so that's good!" silver lining here.

The popular vote could be a source of solace. The Electoral College magnifies victories and makes reasonably close elections feel lopsided. The popular vote gap was 7% – nearly 9,000,000 votes. Not an overwhelming blowout, but certainly nothing to be happy about from the right.

The Senate? Well, if losing eight or nine seats in one election (bringing the total over the last two races to at least -13 R) counts as a victory it is a victory for the forces of delusion. The practical impact of the Democrats' failure to attain sixty seats is almost nil.

The House? We pay so little attention to the poor old House. Certainly it offered a glimmer of hope for the GOP? No, they lost another 21 seats (possibly more when the few remaining races are sorted out). Their deficit is now more than 80 seats: ~256 to 175. High-visibility and ultra-conservative incumbents like Marilyn Musgrave and Steve Chabot lost. Moderates like Christopher Shays and Jon Porter lost. Dennis Hastert's seat is now held by a Democrat. The GOP lost a House race in Idaho. Ouch.

Perhaps the GOP succeeded by experiencing defeat today to set up tomorrow's victories. This election could be salvaged if they established a clear Obama Alternative, a dynamic leader to bring better outcomes in 2010 and 2012. Well, they established Palin…as a punchline to several years' worth of late-night jokes.

I'm sorry, folks. I just do not see the "bright side." The only good thing about this election for Republicans is that it is over. Maybe the magnitude of their defeat will turn out to be the silver lining. With the other party solidly in control of the Federal government, the GOP's best bet may be to hope that things go poorly and start pointing fingers.

Nick Begich may have won Alaska after all. With early votes now being counted, Stevens' 3200-vote lead over Begich evaporated immediately. Since over 30,000 early votes remain to be counted, I don't like Stevens' odds. Early votes across the country have been overwhelmingly Democratic.

I may be saved from prediction-related embarrassment yet.

As Lane County rolls in (including Eugene and U. of Oregon) Merkley has opened up a 40,000 vote lead. With that county only ~70% reported, I think this one's over for Gordy Smith.

Making predictions is not my favorite thing. We know where people stand but not who's going to show up on Tuesday. It's simple to sit here and tell you which way the public is leaning and very difficult to predict how that will translate into electoral results. But I talk too much about these races to do any less than offer predictions which can be held against me at a later date. So, for your mocking pleasure, I give you the Senate races, on which I did not do half-badly in 2006, and the big race. The current Senate, for reference, is 50 D, 49 R, and one ass clown.

Easily defended seats (22)

OK, the Republicans might want to just hide under a pile of coats for the next few weeks. Democratic Army veteran Jim Martin has pulled even with Saxby Chambliss in the Georgia Senate race. Georgia. I will repeat that: the race between a Republican incumbent and a no-name challenger in Georgia is a statistical tie.

No matter how negative a picture we paint, reality seems intent on one-upping us.